Study And Trend Analysis On Land Use Change Based In Haidian

Land is the foundation of human survival and life, land use is the mode and intensity of human beings as the materials of production and living of the land. The amount of land use, land use degree and structure are different manifestations of dynamic land use change. The combination of remote sensing and GIS provides a technical support for land use monitoring and analysis.This paper uses the method of combination of remote sensing and GIS in Haidian district of Beijing in 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2013 TM remote sensing image as data source, to classify the image to get the land use map, four periods and each period of data extraction. Then from three aspects of the amount, degree and structure of the land use to analyze the dynamic change of land use and get the conclusion of the land use change in Haidian district. Finally according to the characteristics of this survey, here uses the grey forecasting model(GM) to forecast the land use change of Haidian in the next 3 years. And then validate the result of the forecast analysis. The results show that the gray prediction model sizes up the purpose of this study. The main contributions of this paper are:(1)The amount of land use change: In the 10 years from 2004-2013, the land use type has a positive growing in Haidian is garden, woodland, grassland and transportation land, and has a negative growing is cultivated land,residential and industrial land, water conservancy and unutilized land.(2) The amount of land use change: The land use degree in Haidian has no significant change. In all the 4 years, the land use degree was more than 300, indicating that Haidian District’s land use degree is relatively high.(3) The structure of land use change: Horizontal analysis, cultivated land, forest land and residential and industrial land are the three major types of land in Haidian. The remaining five types have small share. Longitudinal analysis, after a series of changes the land use type has a positive growing in Haidian is garden, woodland, grassland and transportation land, and has a negative growing is cultivated land,residential and industrial land, water conservancy and unutilized land.(4) Forecast and Analysis: Study grey prediction model(GM) and apply it on the experiment data of this study. Conclusions are here: 2014-2016, garden land, grassland and the change trend of traffic land is still continuation of the first 10 years; The area of the land for residential and industrial in the next three years has been reduced; Unutilized land in the forecast 3 years is to increase first and then decreed. The prediction results validate that the model is suitable for this study.