Research On The Risk-type Mass Emergency’s Risk Information Dissemination

In recent years, mass emergencies especially risk-type mass emergencies occur frequently. It not only brings difficulty to the government’s management, but also seriously undermined the harmony and stability of society. In the process of the emergencies, the dissemination of risk information plays an important role on people’s psychology and behavior, as well as government’s measurements. So it’s necessary to analyze the disseminating process of risk information and how it affects the emergencies, which can provide theory evidence to prevent and control the emergencies.Firstly, some basic theories are introduced, such as the social material combustion theory, complex social network theory and neighbor effect, pointing out internal relations between the risk information’s dissemination and mass emergencies. This establishes a good foundation for the models in the next chapter.Secondly, based on defining the risk information’s meaning and its dissemination mechanism, analyze the interaction between the risk information’s dissemination and mass emergencies. Under the influence of media and the interpersonal relation, as the risk information disseminates, the risk is enlarged and finally induces the mass emergency, while after the emergency breaks out, the dissemination will accelerate the process.Third, a risk information disseminating model on the complex social network is established basing on the neighbor effect theory, which analyzes the disseminating process of the risk information, deriving a conclusion that there are three disseminating results: evanishing, oscillating and gathering. And then it gets the estimating evidences about whether or not the mass emergency breaks out and also gives some preventing strategies.Fourth, considering the onlookers’ and participants’ role in disseminating the risk dissemination in the situation where mass emergency occurs, an influence model of risk information dissemination after the mass emergency occurs is established. Thus it receives the threshold value about the emergency’s solution and expansion. Further more, a discussion about the situation where the government tries to persuade onlookers and participants to opt out of the emergency is made.Finally, by analyzing the Ningbo Zhenhai PX event happened in October 2012, the validity and practicability of the models are verified in chapter four, which receiving the disseminating rule of risk information in the PX event, and also finding out how it affects the government’s controlling measurements.