Preliminary Study On Technology Foresight Model Based On Extenics Theory

After entering the twenty-first Century, the outcome of the technology foresight activities has become the guarantee of comprehensive national strength competition. However, in the specific technology foresight activities, the researchers found that Delphi method to establish the technology foresight research system has many limitations: subjective reasons include excessive dependence on large economic organization of funds to organize to carry out the research cycle, the span is too long cause a subject conclusion deviation, Delphi data itself is static and will not immediately update; objective reasons including China itself and in the stage of social development, science and technology and economic system is not perfect and so on. The limitations of technology foresight often result in a fatal impact on the accuracy of the final results of the research project. In this situation, to find and develop new technology foresight means to build a strategic plan for the development of science and technology is the most important. The main research content of this paper is how to combine the extension theory and technology foresight activity framework and create a new system architecture and flow method which is suitable for the application of extension and innovation method.According to the characteristics of technology foresight method, the author from the purpose, the needs of society, the expert consensus, time span and dynamic process and other aspects of the extension thinking for evaluation; and then on the basis of the extension theory of technology foresight, design a new model and method of technology foresight process: from the technology foresight process "to determine the expert the team", "social economic survey" before the two steps between extensional thinking; re organized extension method theory of extension design method of the second creation method, establish a micro technology foresight domain with extension model architecture, describes the extenics in the micro technology foresight activities in the specific application process. And the feasibility of the theory is verified by two examples of micro technology foresight and innovation.This paper is mainly demonstrated from two directions:the first example, create a method with the improved matter-element second, detailed analysis of the product, and then the decomposition of the components, including soft and hard, and was part of the potential, resulting in the change of extension extension matter-element in the new study, after a preliminary assessment of the new element is generated, the divergent tree innovative products through divergent thinking set; through the second assessment including market survey, the results of convergence so as to find out our products, and then reach extension in micro technology foresight application; second experiments, the author extension, the ant colony algorithm will lead to stagnation of missing data will appear:the modified algorithm of 2D mesh model development type of the original into a closed The improved algorithm is verified by the experimental results.Through the experimental study, the author gets the following conclusions:first, the technology foresight will now and in the long future in, occupy the important position of technology foresight study; second, extension thinking can be technology foresight introduced; third, extension innovation in micro technology foresight activities is of practical use.Although has achieved initial success, but I still on the field for further study:how to introduce the characteristics of high-speed computer operation, of technology foresight, extension innovation and computer algorithm are fused and produced a massive data processing by computer and is not dependent on human brain so as to cause the error model. When faced with massive data evaluation awards, you can avoid the human subjective judgment and the result deviation.