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The Measure Of The Effect Of Internet Financial News On Stock Market

Posted on:2016-12-12Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:H ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2308330482965687Subject:Statistics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The stock market has been a hot research field.The traditional research use the historical data of the stock market to explore the characteristics of the stock market. However, few studies use information, news, to explore some of the factors that affect the stock market, and then explore the relevance between information and stock market. With the rapid development of the Internet, we can get a lot of information from the Internet in a short time, which makes it possible to study the stock market through the Internet. This article, from the perspective of financial news, explored the relationship between the Internet financial news and stock market, and measured the impact of the Internet on the stock market, and put forward a new idea for the stock market research.In this paper, we use the web crawler technology to get financial news text from the Internet, and use some methods of text mining to process the financial news.we transform the unstructured text into structured data, so as to follow the analysis process.In the process of analysis, the first is to use the event study method to measure the impact of stock news on the stock return 。 Based on the CAPM model and statistical significance test, we analyze the abnormal return rate of the stock before and after the news event. The results show that:First, the corresponding stock has indeed generated abnormal returns after the event of the incident so the stock news does have a significant impact on the stock price; second, before the news release, the company’s stock price has produced abnormal fluctuations in the stock market; third, whether from the view of average abnormal return rate or cumulative abnormal return, stock price reaction intensity of bad events are greater than the positive events.Secondly, the paper analyzes the impact of the Internet financial news on the plate index. In this part, we use the LDA model to extract topic information from the financial press, and then constructs the topic sentiment index,which based on professional financial emotion lexicon.Through studying the relationship between topic sentiment index and the corresponding plate index returnS,we find that the theme of financial news has an effect on the corresponding plate index. According to the results of the Granger causality analysis,we found that there is a causal relationship between financial topics sentiment index and the index of financial plate index returns. In order to further explore the relationship, this paper uses the vector auto regression analysis to study the dynamic relationship of the both, through the regression equation and the results of the impulse response, variance decomposition of the results,we found that the financial theme of the emotional index would have a positive impact on the financial sector index, this effect is usually lasting three to four days.The innovation of this paper is that we use text mining technology to study the stock market. Based on the analysis of text sentiment, the paper introduces the theme model, and analyzes the results from the form of a text to a text. In addition, this paper also presents a method to construct the sentiment tendency index of the document set, and provides a new method for analyzing the sentiment of the news text.
Keywords/Search Tags:stock market, event study, topic model, sentiment analysis
PDF Full Text Request
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