The Design And Implementation Of China Coal Market Trading Decision Simulation System

Coal is the main energy. The stability of coal market is important guaranty fornational energy safety and the healthy development of economy. With the deepeningof China’s coal market reform, coal price index as an important economic signal isgradually paid more attentions by all concern, which can reflect the operatingconditions of coal market and guide government and enterprises to make decisions.But systematic studies about coal price index are comparatively insufficient, so thispaper studies on coal price index mainly from these aspects: the mechanism of coalprice, forecast and simulation, regulation policy design and so on.In the study of the mechanism of coal price, firstly, this paper studied thedefinition and consture of coal market; secondly, analyze the bidding behavior oftransaction main bodies; thirdly, study the mechanism of coal price through analyzingthe game process in two conditions, buyer’s market and seller’s market.In terms of operation mechanism, this article first on the meaning andcomposition of the coal trading market is defined, and then further analyze thebidding behavior of trading main body, and finally, from a buyer’s market and seller’scoal trading market, the game analysis of two kinds of state run coal trading marketprice mechanism are discussed.In the study of the forecast and simulation of the coal price index, three aspectswere studied, including operation mechanism of coal market, the modeling andplatform development. Firstly, based on the analysis the influence factors of the coalprice index and trading game, study the operation mechanism of coal market;Secondly, introduce the EMD-ARMA model to build short-term prediction model ofcoal price index, select BSPI as the object for application research. It shows that themodel accuracy is excellent, which is suitable for short-term forecasting of coal priceindex; Thirdly, introduce the theory of complex network to build the simulation modelof coal market, which can do the simulations with various conditions about tradingvolume、trade price and channel change, etc; Finally, based on the above research, use(GIS), database and decision support system and other modern informationtechnology to develop the visual information platform of coal price index, which canrealize the real-time release of coal prices index, prediction and simulation, etc.In the study of regulation policy design, this paper through studying therelationship between the coal price index and macroeconomic operation referenceindex sets up coal price index forewarn interval, which can provide decision-makingreference basis for government regulation policy, and then puts forward a coal pricesregulation idea about long-term capacity control, medium-term transportation controland short-term reserve control.