| Objective: According to the difference of the time, area and population distribution of infectious diseases in Bayinguoleng, Mongolia, Xinjiang autonomous prefecture(Bazhou),the main legal infectious diseases are analyzed. According to the historical data of the Chinese disease surveillance information reporting management system, the time series model is used to predict the epidemic trend of infectious diseases. To provide the theoretical basis for the formulation and implementation of prevention and control measures for the prevention and control of infectious diseases in Bazhou area. Methods:Using descriptive research method, 2012-2014 years of the "China disease surveillance information reporting management system" in Bazhou area report the main statutory infectious disease data, data analysis.At present, there are many methods for disease prediction, including regression analysis, time series method, neural network method, and so on. These methods have their own applicable scope and advantages. In this paper, we first use the original data of the total incidence rate of infectious diseases in Bazhou to plot the scatter plot, and select the appropriate forecasting method according to the situation of scattered point map. According to the data of 2005-2014, the nonlinear relationship between the convex and concave convex curves is recommended, and the time series method is recommended to predict. Results:(1) 2012-2014 Bazhou Area a total of report of notifiable infectious diseases 26373 cases, the average annual reported incidence rate of668.91/10 million and 29 kinds of report ABC statutory management of infectious diseases, non communicable disease reporting. Majority of the number of reportedincidence of major infectious diseases in order to 9080 cases of viral hepatitis B(representing 34.23%), the incidence 230.77/10 million, pulmonary tuberculosis 4265cases(accounted for 16.17%), the incidence 108.25/10 million, syphilis 2699 cases(accounting for 10.23%), the incidence 68.27/10 million and hepatitis C 2049 cases(accounting for 7.77%), the incidence of 51.89/10 million, 1595 cases of brucellosis((6.05%), the incidence of 40.20/10 million. The epidemiological characteristics of five kinds of infectious diseases in the region: summer high incidence of viral hepatitis type B;gender ratio to 1.17:1, ranging in age from 20 to 60 years of age, occupation distribution in the top three followed by farmers, workers and housework and unemployed personnel;distribution in the three regions are Korla City, Hejing county and Yuli County.Pulmonary tuberculosis in winter and spring in high incidence; gender ratio to 1.37:1, age distribution in the 20-80 years old cases mainly by farmers, retired personnel and the housework and unemployed personnel composition; distribution in the three regions are Korla City, Hejing county and Luntai County. Spring high incidence of syphilis; sex ratio is 1: 1.30, ranging in age from 20 to 50 years old cases mainly by farmers, workers and household and unemployed personnel; distribution in the top three areas are Korla City,Luntai County and in the county. Hepatitis C in winter and spring high. The male to female ratio was 1: 1.13, age distribution in 30-70 years old, occupational distribution mainly by farmers, housework and unemployed personnel and from retired personnel composition. Distribution in the top three are Korla City, and Luntai County, and static county. Brucellosis high in summer. The male to female ratio for 2.76:1, ranging in age from 30 to 60 years of age and occupation distribution mainly by farmers, herders and workers constitute. The distribution in the top three areas are Hejing County, Yanqi county and county.(2) 2015-2019 notifiable infectious diseases showed a downward trend year by year, but new infectious diseases continue to emerge, old infectious diseases continuous recurrence trend will endanger the health of the residents living, so we cannot treat sth lightly should be constantly strengthen epidemic prevention of the infectious disease epidemic, analysis, control and monitoring efforts, as far as possible to ensure the health of residents quality of life. Conclusions:(1) direct network report system for infectious disease prevention and control is of great significance, viral hepatitis,tuberculosis, syphilis, hepatitis C and brucellosis is still in diseases of the area prevention and control of the main focus, in particular, should strengthen the protection of farmers and the elderly and health education, at the same time pay attention to the effect of season on epidemic tendency of infectious diseases.(2) The incidence of infectious diseases inBazhou area is generally declining, although the incidence of infectious diseases in general has declined, but the individual infectious diseases are still possible. Infectious diseases have great harm to people, not only to the people’s life safety and health, but also because of its infectious, the safety of the society also has a great harm. China’s infectious diseases prevention and control is mainly based on disease prevention and control departments, the disease surveillance is the basis of disease prevention and control work.Therefore, it is very important to do a good job of prevention and control of infectious diseases in the region. According to the five main infectious diseases in the region, the main work of the disease prevention and control is formulated. |
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