Research On The Applicability Of Gail Model In The Assessment Of Breast Cancer Risk In Zhejiang Eastern Coastal Women

Objective:To discuss the application of Gail model in the assessment of breast cancer risk in zhejiang eastern coastal women in China.Methods:This research on the women aged35-69years old without breast cancer, Through the epidemiological investigation to get the data,total of42908people.42908people of mammary gland disease history of individual, age, age at menarche, age at first live birth, first-degree relatives, breast biopsy and race information is analyzed, with follow-up of5years. To evaluate the performance of the Gail model,we compared the expected number of breast cancer cases predicted by the model to the actual number of cases observed within5-year.Analyze the receiver-operating characteristic curve (receiver operator characteristic curve, ROC). Results:Overall,after calculation42908women was predicted5-year breast cancer risk assessment.This corresponds to a ratio of expected to observed cases (E/O)of2.09,indicating that the Gail model predicted a2.09-fold higher risk of breast cancer incidence as compared with that observed over this period.Analysis the receiver-operating characteristic curve, according to the ROC curve close to the diagonal;the largest area under the curve is0.587,95%confidence interval between0.471-0.704;Comparing with area of0.5, P=0.147is greater than0.05, there is no statistical significance.Conclusions:Gail model assessment was higher risk of breast cancer incidence in zhejiang eastern coastal areas as the standard value of prediction.The correlation between Gail model calculate risk value of high or low with whether she is a breast cancer patient is low. Whether it conforms to the Zhejiang eastern coastal women’s breast cancer risk assessment in our country should be further research.