Spatiotemporal Delay Of Hand Foot And Mouth Disease In Response To Weather Variation:a Case Study In Shandong Province

Abstract:Discovering the influence factors of infectious diseases abnormal in time is an important premise in preventing infectious disease. But most of previous studies limited to study on the prevalence of the corresponding elements of point position other than consider the temporal lag.The association between weekly HFMD cases and meteorological data (the average wind speed, average relative humidity, precipitation, average temperature,temperature difference) at different temporal and spatial scales in Shandong Province was analyzed by using buffer analysis and the singular value decomposition method.Firstly,the paper uses the spatial scan statistic theory to detect the existence of spatio-temporal hot region in May to July and Nine to October in2008in Shandong province.Secondly, it uses the method of EOF analysis to analysis the hand foot and mouth disease distribution in Shandong province during May to July and Nine to October in2008. The association between weekly HFMD cases and meteorological data at different temporal (the week and1to4weeks in advance) and spatial scales(the geometric center of counties in Shandong Province as the center, radius of meteorological elements of50km,100km,150km,200km buffer on the circle within the county) in Shandong Province from May to July and Nine to October in2008was analyzed by using buffer analysis and the singular value decomposition method.The meteorological elements which are real associated with the high hand foot mouth disease incidence in Shandong province are obtained by using Wallace’s random test method.Research results show that wind speed within a50km buffer circle of counties in Shandong Province with two-week lag, and RH within a200km buffer circle of counties with two-week lag, are significantly associated with HFMD incidence. We find positive correlation between wind speed within the50km buffer circle in the prior two weeks and wind speed within the province in the prior one week. Thus, meteorological anomalies in the prior two weeks may be used as a valid tool for detecting anomalies during peak periods of infectious disease.