The Lag Study Of The Urban Household Of The Per-capita Tobacco Consumption On Lung Cancer Mortality In Henan Province

ObjectiveTo analyze the time trends of the lung cancer mortality from1987to2012, andstudy the association between the per-capita tobacco consumption of residents andlung cancer mortality, and the lag effect of the per-capita tobacco consumption onlung cancer mortality, and while projecting the mortality of lung cancer in futuretwenty years (2013-2032) in Henan province, and to provide theoretical evidence forpolicy development on control and reduction of lung cancer mortality.MethodsData regarding of lung cancer mortality from1987to2012and the per-capitatobacco consumption among urban household residents from1992to2012, wascollected from Provincial Center for Tumor and Vital Statistics Database andpublished statistical year book in Henan province. Spearman rank correlation wasused to analyze the association between lung cancer mortality and the per-capitatobacco consumption which was deducted the price. Trend analysis was used to testsignificance of trend of lung cancer mortality of the residents in Henan province from1987to2012. Distributed lag model was used to determine the lag influence of theurban household of the per-capita tobacco consumption on lung cancer mortality from1992to2011by Eviews6.0software package, In the model constructed, per-capitatobacco consumption was independent variable, the lung cancer mortality wasdependent variable, and the model was used to predict the lung cancer mortality from2013to2032.Results1. The crude mortality of the total lung cancer, the male and female lungmortality showed a rising trend from1987to2012over time in Henan province, thestandardized mortality of the total lung cancer, men and women also increased withtime.2. The distributed lag model showed that the goodness of fit R2of was0.5555, Fwas7.4978, P<0.05, and the independent variable could explain55.55%of thevariation Y in the dependent variable. The model showed that the effect of the per-capita tobacco consumption on lung cancer mortality had a lag period of twelveyears, and the model had a maximum effect during the twelve years3. Using the distributed lag model to predict the lung cancer mortality, if wedidn’t take any tobacco interventions, the per-capita tobacco consumption continuedtheoretically to grow at an average, the lung cancer mortality would continue to growin2013-2032,and the lung cancer mortality would reached45.70/100000;assumption that some measures were taken to control the tobacco consumption, theper-capita tobacco consumption of the residents were kept to decrease theoretically inan average rate, and while the lag influence of tobacco consumption on lung cancermortality, the mortality of lung cancer in2013-2032would show a downward trendafter the first rise with time.ConclusionThe lung cancer mortality of permanent residents in Henan province isincreasing, the urban household of the per-capita tobacco consumption has an lagperiod effect of twelve years on lung cancer mortality. Theoretically, don’t take anymeasures to control the tobacco consumption, the lung cancer mortality will continueto increase in the future twenty years, and take some measures to control theper-capita tobacco consumption, the lung cancer will show a downward trend afterthe first rise with time.