Simulation Of Potential Maize Yield In Jilin Province Based On Crop Model Under Climate Change

Using daily average meteorological data of 15 meteorological stations in Jilin province from 1981 to 2010, and the meteorological data of three kinds of possible future climate scenarios according to IPCC report, as the weather factor to drive the WOFOST model. Simulating light and temperature potential production and climate potential production of mid-maturing and late-maturing maize in Jilin Province. Analysis the accumulated temperature increase and the distribution characteristic.The following conclusions:(1) In three different scenarios, accumulated temperature increasing rate is different, has different influence on the growth period of corn in Jilin Province, showing in Siping as the center to the surrounding gradually less after the Dunhua area, and increased gradually trend. Under the A1 B scenario accumulated temperature increase 480 ℃·d, corn yield decreased most, the B1 scenario of the accumulated temperature increase 412 ℃·d, maize yield was reduced at least, under the A2 scenario accumulated temperature increase 450 ℃·d, intermediate between the other two scenarios, maize yield decline between the middle.(2) The distribution form of mid-maturing and late-maturing maize light-temperature potential production are similar in Jilin from 1981 to 2010 and three kinds of possible future climate scenarios, showing from the northwest to the southeast gradually reduce the trend. In the future, the light-temperature potential production of mid-maturing and late-maturing maize decline with the increase of temperature. But late-maturing maize declined more than the mid-maturing maize. The light-temperature potential production decline range is A1B>A2>B1 of mid-maturing and late-maturing maize. The number of days to shorten the growth period of mid-maturing and late-maturing maize is A1B>A2>B1 in three diffident climate scenarios.(3) The distribution form of mid-maturing and late-maturing maize climate potential production are similar in Jilin from 1981 to 2010 and three kinds of possible future climate scenarios, showing from the central region to the east to the north gradually reduce the trend. The lowest values were in Tongyu and Dunhua. Under the future climate warming temperature increase, the yield reduce if the varieties unchanged because it will accelerate the development of the crop, mature earlier.(4) To compare the potential of climate production and the production potential of light and temperature in three different scenarios, namely the ratio of production potential. The greater the potential ratio, the better the matching degree of resources such as precipitation and light temperature. Under the A1B scenario, the production potential ratio is the least, which shows that the matching degree of precipitation and light temperature resources is not good in this situation. Three different scenarios of potential distribution ratio are similar, show a increasing trend from northwest to southeast.In the future Jingyu, Tonghua,Yanji area of precipitation and light temperature matching degree is better, but in Baicheng,Tongyu,Qianan area are easy to be affected by the precipitation, causes the drought.