| Grassland ecosystem is the largest terrestrial ecosystem in Chinese area and has irreplaceable ecological functions, which is also a natural barrier to protect the ecological environment. Drought disaster has characteristics that high frequency, wide range, involving serious losses in our country, and it has a serious effect on the grassland. Especially, the extreme climate weathers such as serious drought had being increasing caused by the global climate warms up, which severely restricts the development of Pastoral social economy. Therefore, we should execute drought disaster risk assessment and management, it can be benefit to all levels of governments to master drought information in time and make measures to prevent disaster,it is very important to reduce disaster losses and improve social economy.Drought disaster is the main natural disasters in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, XilinGol League is the area that drought disaster has a high frequency in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, is Chinese important production base of animal husbandry. So this paper takes XilinGol League as the study area, based on the principle of the formation of drought disaster risk theory and risk assessment of natural disaster, starting from four factors that the hazard risk, disaster bearing body exposure,vulnerability and capacity of disaster prevention and reduction, in which I selected 12 indicators. The use of natural geography, disaster science, meteorology and climatology and natural disaster risk science and other multi-disciplinary theories and methods, use of natural disaster index method, the analytic hierarchy process, Weighted comprehensive evaluation method and other methods to establish the model of the risk assessment on drought disaster in this region. Application of BP artificial neural network to verifing the model, with the support of GIS technical, the generation of XilinGol League drought disaster risk profiles, and the area of drought disaster risk analysis. The results show: XilinGol League grassland drought disaster risk hazard index is generally decreasing from northwest to Southeast, hazard risk is decreasing. Vulnerability index showed an overall decreasing trend from north to south, vulnerability risk also decreases. Exposure index spatial distribution showed a decreasing trend from east to West index, exposure risk reducing. The capacity of disaster prevention and mitigation in the study area in each county has obvious differences, generally in the entire league decreases from the periphery to the center; there is a trend of increasing from north to south. XilinGol League drought disaster comprehensive risk zoning, East Ujimqin Banner, and Abaga banner Banner are the very high risk regions, Sonid Left Banner, Sonid Right Banner, and West Ujimqin Banner are the high risk areas, Xilinhaote City and Taipusiqi Banner are medium risk regions, Zhengxiangbai Banner and Zhenglan Banner are low risk regions, Erenhot city and Duolun county are the very low risk regions. All in all, the prairie drought risk has a decreasing trend from north to south and the east to the west. According to the curves of changing in Xilin Gol League countries grassland drought disaster risk these years, which is drawn by the BP network model for predicting the results, these results essentially in agreement with the result that use AHP to predicting drought risk of Xilin Gol League for many years, thus verifying the XilinGol League drought model is reasonable, the conclusion is consistent with the reality. |
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