The Study Of The Socio-economic Water Cycle Characteristic In Zhangye City Based On Physical Input-output Model

Water is the most basic social life and economic production in arid areas and the most indispensable resources, water cycle study in socio-economic system. Knowing economy within the system migration and transformation characteristics of water resources between different industries can provide decision support management and regulation of water resources in zhangye.The physical input-output model(PIOM) is much more suitable for the value accounting of the flux of the social economic system, and the description of the system’s internal between different industries associated with water is more in line with the actual. Hence, the anarchic method based on PIMO provides a new perspective for water cycle research with both applicable valuable. This paper firstly introduced the basic principle of input-output analysis and the basic approach to prepare the input-output model. Meanwhile, based on this theory, adopting the method of Helga Weize, we finished the monetary input-output model in 2007 of Zhangye municipality. And then, we obtained the PIMO of Zhangye municipality by the transition of unit price vector value to PIMO. Utilizing the basic physical model, we also acquired their water resources physical input-output model in accordance with the proportion of various industrial departments’ total water consumption accordingly.Eventually, we have proved by example towards Zhangye municipality based on the data from the PIOM, and quantitatively analyzed the migration characteristic,correlation degree of department and the multiplier effect of different department of water resources utilization in social economic system simultaneously. By comparing analysis results, we can advise policy suggestions the local government, and the main conclusions and advice as follows:(1)We can see that the department of agriculture influence coefficient is less than1 from the analysis of associated industry sector angle. And the change of final demand pull effect on the local water amount is not large. Meanwhile, in other industry, construction industry and manufacturing industry, the influence coefficient is greater than 1, which means these departments’ final change of demand for water will eventually produce large pull effects. Department of agriculture, on the other hand, its induction degree coefficient is greater than 1, means that this department is abottleneck in the whole water industry, and its pull effect to the total economic system’s water consumption is largest. Therefore, during the periods of Zhangye’s agricultural trade structure changing, it is a good way to implement the strategy of virtual water. This lowers the local water consumption through exporting low water cost production and importing high water cost products in order to realize the region water security.(2)The largest transfer of the amount of water in agriculture to manufacturing is48885.6×104m3from the analysis of the water resources migration industrially. And followed the transfer of agriculture to animal husbandry and the transfer of agriculture to other industries(service industry) are 19039.7×104m3 and 7377.9×104m3respectively. We can draw a conclusion that the water migration path characteristic coincides with the economic industrial structure of Zhangye generally. The direct agricultural water consumption of Zhangye is tremendous, and the departments’ utilization of water resources are significantly “downward” always. At the same time,other industries’ demand for planting industrial water is huge also through the consumption of farming products directly or indirectly. So it is necessary to adjust the internal structure of agricultural industry and undermine the degree of the dependence on planting industry. From the angle of socialization of water-saving management, the government should develop efficient agriculture through market means and construct agricultural management mode which suited to local conditions, make agriculture to industrialization and water-saving development.(3)Other industry, construction industry, manufacturing industry and animal husbandry multiplier is generally large, which indicate the final water demand change on economic society has a large multiplier effect. So, the key department of Zhangye’s water resources regulation should be in other industry, construction industry, manufacturing industry and animal husbandry from the point of view of demand management.(4)Zhangye social economic system of the total water consumption of 230292 x104 m3. Among them, the agricultural water accounts for 89% of the total water consumption, consumption is the most prominent; Water flow more industry to agriculture and animal husbandry, into more industry for manufacturing industry,forestry and water outflow is greater than inflows, forming serious trade deficit, the trade structure is not conducive to zhangye the transformation of economic structure.The water flow in the economic system has three direction. Firstly is according to the local residents consumption demand for various products into the social life.Secondly,it is in other parts of the flow in the process of trade in goods. Third is with the increase of stock of all sectors of the economy and the formation of fixed assets.