Research On System Dynamics Model And Simulation Of Circular Economy Development In High Energy Industry Cluster

High-consuming and high polluting industries such as chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, black metal smelting and rolling processing industry, Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, Oil processing and coking and nuclear fuel processing industry, electricity and heating production and supply industry, have greatly promoted the national economy since the founding of the People’s republic of China; however our industry started lately and lowly, and took the set road of treatment after pollution as developed countries. The extensive mode of high-exploitation, low-use and high-abandon was the way which industries developed as. High-consuming and high polluting industries developed fast as a unprecedented speed and scale, the development of large scale and high speed lead to a large number of energy consumption and a terrible environment. Mass but low quality development made our country became a big but not powerful nation. If we don’t change the pattern of economic growth, China will be faced with the challenges of energy resources is difficult to support, ecosystem unbearable, national competitiveness is difficult to ascend, and difficult to safeguard national. Developing circular economy is the must choice for high-consuming and high polluting industries to carry out the scientific development view and for sustainable development.This paper tries to use system dynamics simulation model, mainly from two aspects: theory and practice to analysis the necessity to develop circular economy and its dynamic mechanism, in order to find the path of the development of circular economy in high-consuming and high polluting industries cluster.In the aspect of theory, firstly, analyzing the research results and status on cycle economic and system dynamics on cycle economic both at home and abroad; Then describe the theory of industry cluster, circular economy, the necessity of developing circular economy in industry cluster and the methods of system dynamics. In particular it mainly concludes the concept, development, characteristics of circular economy and industry cluster, as well as system dynamics’ objects, ideas, applications and using methods; Lastly, in-depth study the characteristics, traditional model and new type of model of high-consuming and high polluting industries cluster. Structure, framework and the dynamic mechanism of the development of circular economy are discussed in this paper. All above of theoretical knowledge lay the foundation for the dynamics model of Recycle economy system of high-consuming and high polluting industries.In empirical aspect, take the sum data of all six high-consuming and high polluting industries for example, simulate the development of circular economy system by using system dynamics method. The system dynamics model is half qualitative half quantitative, so in the process of building model, we have the qualitative of description on non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry firstly, then made the causal relationship figure of the factors which influence the system greatly, and select some key indicators to make large scale system flow diagram of the system. According to the logical relationship between various indicators or regression method, their causal relationship was presented by parametric equation, and the constant was assigned a value based on the previous data statistics and processing. Finally, predict the main index, industrial GDP and gross profit, which reflect the economic benefit, energy consumption and water consumption which reflect resource effectiveness index, three wastes emissions and environmental efficiency which reflect the environmental effectiveness with the dynamics of the system, forecasting the trends of these indicators in the next 6 years, and provide guidance for the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry to develop circular economy in China, and apply these guidance to other high-consuming and high polluting industries. Due to capricious and non-operational, just make qualitative analysis in the fourth chapter but no quantitative analysis for the market factors.