Analysis Of Impacting Factors Of Technology Innovation Diffusion And Diffusion Process In Dingxiang Forging Industry

Strengthening the real economy is the focus of this year’s national economic work conference, and forging industry, as the pillar industry of the Dingxiang county economy, is called as "the national Top100industrial clusters", representative worthy of research. In2012, according to the county government’s economic work conference documents, making the forging industry bigger and stronger is the top priority of Dingxiang county economic development. In order to successfully achieve and complete, the forging industry must continue to make breakthroughs in technology and innovation.The impact of technology innovation is mainly achieved by technology innovation diffusion. If technology innovation is used in a small area, its revenue is subtle. Only by popularization of the scale, the effect role of the scale can be reflected and to the maximum extent promote the development of the forging industry. And, the impacting factors analysis of technology innovation directly determines the role of the technology innovation diffusion and the degree identified by the potential adopters; And building the simulation model of the forging industry technology innovation diffusion can provide an effective analysis tool for the further study of the technology innovation diffusion and intuitive observation of the diffusion process of technology innovation and it is estimated that the charge trend. The combination facilitate to analyze the cause of the error during the process of technology innovation diffusion and to provide theoretical guidance to further promote the technology innovation diffusion. From the general system constitute analysis, this paper extracts11impacting factors:relative superiority、complexity、coordination、testability、 observation、business ability、business condition、enterprises need for innovation、the actual utility of evaluation、diffusion channels、the complexity of the market structure, builds Dingxiang forging industry technology innovation diffusion factors empirical analysis model, obtain data through a questionnaire survey, analyze various factors that affects the size and effect through the structural equation model. The final estimated conclusion is that according to the impacting effects that each impacting factors impact on the enterprise adopt behavior,the influencing factors in descending order:business condition、business ability/the complexity of the market structure、 coordination、 observation、the actual utility of evaluation、complexity、relative superiority、enterprises need for innovation、testability、diffusion channels. Then build the corresponding cellular automata model based on the statistical Yearbook and the Bass model about technology innovation diffusion process as well as theoretical knowledge of cellular automata. Taken the flange yield as the object of study, this paper analyzes the degree of fitting between the actual data and the cellular automata model, and predicts the trends. Combined with earlier research of effects of impacting factors, this paper analyzes the error reasons. The final conclusion is that the Bass model only take the effect of the diffusion channels into consideration, simply take both the external mass media impacting factor and the internal verbal exchange impacting factor as impacting factors into consideration, ignores that the other impacting factors influence the technology innovation process. We can only roughly simulate the diffusion process and predict trends. So the diffusion error can not be avoided.