Yellow River Delta Efficient Ecological Economic Zone Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity

Water is indispensable to the survival of humans and all living things, and it is precious natural resources supporting the industrial and agricultural production, economic development and environmental improvement. The less of water resources per capita and the serious pollution of water resources caused by economic development make our country face the congenital shortage and acquired pollution. How to handle the relations between water resources and population, environment and sustainable economic development, has become a common concern of the whole society, is also the hotspot of research in Science. The State Council formally approved "the Agenda of Development for an Efficient and Ecological Yellow River Delta Development Zone" in2009, and advanced this agenda to the level of national strategy. To develop the Yellow River delta to be a truly efficient and ecological economic zone, water resource is an important factor to consider.Based on the analysis of the reality in the Yellow River delta efficient and ecological economic zone, this article has carried on the evaluation research of water resources carrying capacity, and the specific contents are as follows:(1) This article first describes the range, social and economic situation, natural conditions and the status of development and utilization of water resources of study zone. Defining water resources carrying capacity, it includes the quantity carrying capacity of water resources and water environmental carrying capacity in this study, namely researching water resources carrying capacity from two aspects of quantity and quality.(2) Adopting quota method and conventional trend method based on2010, the paper forecasts living water, industrial water, agricultural water demand and ecological water requirement in2015and2020, got the whole water demand. The article forecasts available surface water, available groundwater water, available foreign water and other unconventional available water of the study area in2015and2020, got the whole supply water, then carries on the analysis of balance between supply and demand of water resources. With the improvement of people environmental protection consciousness and the guest water referenced scientifically, the situation of water resources shortage has improved in the study area.(3) Comprehensive comparison of some methods of quantitative analysis of the water resources carrying capacity, the water resource carrying capacity of study zone is evaluated by applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation in two different scenarios in2010,2015, and2020. The selected evaluation factors include per capita water resource quantity, utilization rate of water resource, per capita water supply quantity, water supply module, domestic water quota, rate of irrigated farmland, industrial water requirement quantity per10,000industrial product value, water requirement module, and environment water use rate.Scenario1:The future water supply is local water resource, without the foreign water. The comprehensive score values are all low,0.408217、0.44439、0.461454, which explains that the development and utilization of local water resources capacity limits and the utilization rate of water resource, especially the groundwater is close to the highest limit. The contradiction of water resources supply and demand is very outstanding, and the local water resource has seriously can not meet the regional water demand.Scenario2:The future water supply includes the local water resource, the foreign water and the reused wastewater. The comprehensive score values are all greater than0.5,0.505616,0.546583,0.545725. Water resource in study zone has a size of supply, development and utilization, but still has certain potential of development and utilization. If we use water resource reasonably, and pay attention to saving and protection, water research will have certain guarantee for the local national economic development.(4) Water environmental carrying capacity is the carrying capacity of water resource quality. This paper is to study several major rivers of the region and Xiashan reservoir in the objects for water quality research, compares status of water quality in2005-2009years with the water quality standard of the functional area, and uses water quality achieved rate to mean water environmental carrying capacity. (5) Using principal component analysis method to study the driving factors of the water resource carrying capacity, utilization rate of water resource, available water supply quantity and per capita water resource quantity are the important influencing factors of water resources carrying capacity in the study area.According to the research of this paper and the characteristics of the Yellow River delta efficient and ecological economic zone, from two aspects of water supply and water requirement, the measures and suggestions are put forward for improving the water resource carrying capacity in the study area. In the long run, to guarantee the sustainable development of social economy of Yellow River Delta efficient and ecological economic zone, we could really solve the problem of water shortages in the study area by increasing the reused wastewater quantity and more foreign water, to promote coordinated development of the population, social economy, resources and environment.