The Medical Insurance Expenditure Analysis And Prediction In ShenZhen China

ObjectiveThrough the investigation and analysis of Shenzhen City,the various groups ofthe use of medical services,medical consumption trends and various insurancepolicy ’s impact on medical consumption,so as to understand the different types ofpeople’s health level and health security, in order to effectively control medical costsfrom rising too fast, reasonable distribution of medical resources to provide scientificbasis for the utilization of the country, study on the medical insurance policy to drawlessons from action.MethodThe Shenzhen City Medical Insurance Management Bureau in2003June to2011June medical consumption data,according to gender,household registration,insurancetype,category,stratified analyses were performed,using Excel2003,SPSS13.0statistical software to calculation of medical expenses,medical service utilization,medical news pin indicators, transverse, longitudinal analysis and comparison ofvarious people’s health care level change. At the same time using time series analysis(ARIMA) method, a class of medical cost index model, through forecasting model ofmedical insurance fund and medical consumption trend, so as to control the increasingmedical expenses, medical insurance fund to ensure safety.ResultsFrom the basic situation, branch of gender, males in the outpatient and inpatientcosts were higher than that in female patients. Outpatient medical services in male patients with medical costs mainly concentrated in the drug cost, average per capita offemale patients with higher cost per admission46.22yuan,1928yuan higher in malesthan in females, the average hospitalization expenses and per capita hospitalizationfee in males than in females were higher than1005yuan,923yuan. Branch ofinsurance type, comprehensive health care costs for patients was significantly higherthan that of other type of medical insurance, general insurance (225.94yuan) percapita outpatient medication in is almost on the migrant workers medical insurance(68.05yuan) three times, migrant workers health insurance on the utilization ofmedical services and comprehensive medical insurance still has bigger difference.Division of household type, in per capita outpatient costs (Shenzhen householdregister278.44yuan, not Shenzhen census register184.55yuan) and per capitaoutpatient medication (Shenzhen household register154.05yuan, not Shenzhencensus register79.47yuan), the Shenzhen census register is not Shenzhen censusregister Shenzhen household register1.51times and1.89times, the Shenzhen censusregister population may have too many policy care and economic support, notShenzhen census register population in this area are still in need of the governmentsupport energetically. Branch staff categories, index of average per capita, retiredpopulation is much higher than other population, labor is the lowest, or even negativegrowth trend.Using time series analysis to build the ARIMA model analysis shows that: in thetotal medical costs and total Medicare payment, the predictive value of contrast can befound, in2012November, the total medical expenses will exceed the total Medicarepayment, if it is in accordance with the past medical consumption and the proportionof payment, it is bound to bring the risk of medical fund. So on the one hand, from therapid growth of medical cost control proceed with, on the other hand the need forMedicare payment adjustment.ConclusionIntegrated the medical expense compared to several other insurance types werehigher,should strictly control the drug cost,inspection cost of outpatient medicalservice, should properly control the household registration in Shenzhen, male patients medical expenses.At the same time, raise the level of medical care of migrant workers.According to the predictions of the ARIMA model, in2012November, the totalmedical costs will exceed the total insurance premium, the medical insurance fund toshow risk. Control of the medical expense rise in focus,control the risk of medicalinsurance fund.