| Over the last few decades, due to the unreasonable land development of arid and semi-arid region, soaring demand for industrial and agricultural water and artificial oasis irrigation of the surrounding land, the Lop Nur has dried up, and Ebinur Lake waters are beginning to atrophy. The article selected the Bosten Lake basin which contains one of the once biggest inland freshwater lakes in our country——Bosten Lake, as the study area. However due to the irrational development as well as industrial and agricultural pollution in recent years, Bosten Lake has become brackish which attracted the attention of the concerned branch. To avoid repeating the Lop Nur mistakes, ensure reasonable use of water and guarantee people’s production and living, the study of the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources this area and the mechanism of runoff monthly change is important. The paper built two spatial dispersive models—monthly average temperature and monthly distribution of precipitation, based on that, calculate the areal rainfall and average temperature in the Kaidu River basin and analyze the average runoff change and influencing mechanism of runoff in the second half of many years. The mainly conclusions are as follows:1. The summer half year (may-september) air temperature and precipitation over the Bosten Lake from2000to2009has been simulated by RegCM3model, the result shows that the selected cumulus parameterization scheme and domain size can simulate the spatial and temporal distribution of the monthly average temperature, annual changes in summer half year average temperature and precipitation well, but the ability to simulate the monthly precipitation is relatively poor.2. The R2between the temperature calculated by the temperature distribution model and the measured data is0.9(n=450), the distribution of temperature reveals an increasing trend from northwest to southeast, the highest temperature is located in the central area of the drainage basin, while the low value is in the mountain. The temperature in mountain shows the obvious monthly variation trend, some area reached10-20℃in July; while the temperature change in the basin is not very obvious, temperature maintain at20-28℃. 3. Based on the FNL value, the spatial distribution characteristic of macro precipitation provided by the synoptic precipitation theoretical equation is the same as the interpolation result, which indicates the feasibility of calculating the macro precipitation by this method. There is a good relationship between the precipitation and altitude, the R2value is over0.95. So using the altitude as the main factor of the precipitation increment caused by orographic lifting is valid.4. The mean absolute error between simulated and observation data in mountain and basin is7.94mm and1.63mm respectively, the error is small; the spatial distribution of precipitation is descending from northwest to the southeast, the difference between precipitation in mountain and basin is significant.In mountain, precipitation in july is more than100mm, but less than30mm in basin.5. The calculated runoff can simulate the change of observed runoff data. The standardized regression coefficients of areal rainfall and temperature provided by the analyses are0.025and0.952. The snowmelt runoff caused by the elevatory temperature is the main reason of the runoff distribution in summer half year.6. The annual changing trends of Kaidu Basin runoff from2000to2009can be divided into three categories:in the first type, there is no uniform domain factor of runoff, but there is one thing in common, the domain factor has a relative good correlation to the runoff; precipitation is the domain factor in the second type; temperature is the domain factor in the third type.The study provides a method for the space distribution of precipitation and temperature in arid and semi-arid regions, and it also has the role of guiding the use of water resource more effectively and scientificly. |
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