The Analysis And Forecasting Of Urbanization Level In Shaanxi Province

The urbanization is the inevitable trend of the development of social economy and alsoone of the important marks for social progress. From the1990s, difficulties faced during ourcountry rural reform and development, especially the "three issues concerning farmers", aredirectly and indirectly with the urbanization, so the research in this area is very important. Asthe implementation of the western development strategy, especially in2010the establishmentof Guanzhong-Tianshui economic development zone, Shaanxi will not only be thetransportation hub between west and east in our country, but also be important provincepromoting the development of the western region, at the same time which is also facing greatopportunities. But in recent years the gap of the urbanization development level betweenShaanxi province and the whole country is not only not narrowing, but growing, whichdoesn’t adapt the goal of building western strong province.Urbanization connotation should include the quality and quantity. The number of thelevel of urbanization refers to the proportion of the urban population during thetransformation of the rural area into urban regions caused by industrial development; Thequality of urbanization level is mainly reflected in economic development, the adjustment ofindustrial structure, the infrastructure improvement, the development of science, technologyand culture, the change in the life style, the improvement of the quality of the environment,the establishment of social security, the strengthening of urban management and so on. Thequality of urbanization reflects the quality of the urban residents’ life, urban economic benefit,ecological changes (optimization or deterioration) in the environment. Based on thefoundation of introducing the urbanization theory, and according to the urbanizationconnotation, this paper put forward the problem of measuring the urbanization level, reflectedthe essence of urbanization by the comprehensive evaluation index system, and showed theurbanization development level in Shaanxi province. Using the statistical data in Shaanxiprovince and other provinces (municipalities directly under the central government), the levelof urbanization development in Shaanxi province was comprehensively and deeply analysised.On this basis, by using Modified Chenery Normal and IU、NU than, the relationship betweenindustrialization and urbanization in Shaanxi province was studied, and the level ofurbanization was forecasted in Shaanxi province in the next five years using Time Series Forecasting Method and BP Artificial Neural Network. Finally the countermeasures andsuggestions of the urbanization development in Shaanxi province was put forward,.In this paper, the main conclusions are as follows:1、From1999to2010, the urbanization in Shaanxi province gone through three stages-the tortuous repeated period, the fast development period and the period of steadydevelopment. In2010, the gap of the urbanization development level in different regions andcities in Shaanxi province was great. Xian had the highest urbanization level, Ankang was thelowest, other cities were between the two，the urbanization level in Xian is close to2.5timesthat of Ankang. Guanzhong had the highest urbanization level in the three major regions inShaanxi province, the northern of Shaanxi was the second, and the lowest is the southern ofShaanxi province, the urbanization level of Guanzhong is twice close to the southern ofShaanxi.2、Based on Modified Chenery Normal and IU、NU than, by studying the developmentrelation of industrialization and urbanization in Shaanxi province from1999to2010, thesame conclusion was got, which was that the urbanization level lagged behind the industrialdevelopment in Shaanxi province, but both gradually become the coordinated developmenttrend.3、The urbanization development level in Shaanxi province was low in all provinces(municipality directly under the central government) of the whole nation, especially the gapbetween it and the developed provinces (municipalities directly under the central government)was greater. The urbanization level in Shaanxi province was only half of that in Shanghai.4、Combining Time Series Forecasting Method and BP Artificial Neural Network, theurbanization development level in Shaanxi province in future five years was predicted.Through the comparison, this paper finally adopted BP Artificial Neural Network BP and theurbanization level will be a fall gradually growth.Shaanxi province will be still in thedevelopment stage of the urbanization level for a very long time, but gradually will have lowspeed development.