Activity-based Hidden Markov Model Risk Assessment Technology And Application

Today, with the rapid development of software industry, software development technology continues to improve, the scale and complexity of software development is increasing. To reduce the development risks, many companies have adopted risk management to identify potential project risks and project development in the corresponding control of various risks to ensure project quality and success.Risk assessment in China is still in the initial stage, in this case to Strengthen the risk assessment, especially information security risk assessment study has important significance. Light of the current status and requirements, based on the conclusion and learn the latest foreign technology and ideas work on the basis of the results, this paper conducted the following study:1. Research activities centered software process modeling method and characteristics. Process modeling using UML tools, make the complex process of refining the software into a series of process activities. Simplify and standardize the software risk identification process so as to identify specific targets. And project development in accordance with risk assessment of the situation on the activities of items created favorable conditions for risk control.2. Study of some commonly used risk assessment techniques and algorithms. Including the assessment system model, evaluation criteria, assessment processes, analysis of the implementation of a comprehensive risk assessment of the problems that need attention, and further interpretation of the risk assessment criteria in the calculation of risk and the various factors affect the risk.3. Of the Markov model and hidden Markov model the Algorithm. And to information security intrusion detection technology assistance. In the information security risk assessment process introduced hidden Markov thinking. The results of the risk value of an information system for evaluating the importance of safety standards.4. The method used to actual projects, and give an example verification to the activity-based Hidden Markov risk assessment method. Early in the project risk identification and risk assessment through the project information security modules derived risk weights to enable the effective control of the project, thus ensuring the safety of the project. This software formation of a comprehensive risk assessment system to risk assessment which provide to the software companies effective support and guidance. Actual business enterprise applications can be combined with the thinking of project risk assessment, risk assessment to reduce errors and protect the quality of products.