Research On The Disclosure And Credibility Of Statistics

Statistics are the most important component in all the information released by the government. With the development of the social economy and the constant improvement of the cultivation of China, statistics have been used in more various ways, playing an increasing outstanding role in making decisions. The more advanced the market economy is, the more important the statistics are, which means higher requirements to increase the ability, the quality and the credibility to make statistics. In recent years, the credibility of statistics in our country has attracted increasing attention. The decrease of the credibility of statistics resulted from the opacity of statistics to a large degree. On one hand, the public have great interest in statistics; on the other hand, they don’t get normal access to the methods and process to make statistics. Therefore, they are easy to form misunderstanding of the statistical index, work and data. Once the statistical information has been released, many doubts and misunderstandings will collapse naturally. Therefore, the first step for the government to increase the credibility of statistics is to increase the openness and transparency of statistics. To increase the credibility of the governmental statistics effectively, it is necessary to stick to the principle of the release of statistical information.Based on the theories and practice of the release of governmental statistics at home and abroad, this paper makes use of the theories of asymmetry and public goods, and the principle of supply and demand, takes Sichuan for an example, explores the methods to increase the credibility of statistics through the release of statistics, The conclusion of the dissertation is that the key to improving the credibility of statistics lies in the openness of the statistical information, which includes the following four aspects:the providability of information, that is, whether sufficient statistics can be provided, the accuracy and timelyness of information, that is, the quality of statistics, the accuracy and authoritativeness of information gathering and processing and the target and understandability of disclosed information. The major factor that obstrcts the credibility of statistics at present lies in the four imbalances of the disclosure of statistics:the relative imbalance between the supply and demand of the disclosed statistics, the relative imbalance between the disclosed content of statistics and the demands of the public, the relative imbalance between the disclosed content of statistics and the demands of the public, the relative imbalance between the timeliness of the disclosed statistics and the demands of the public and the relative imbalance between the disclosing form of statistics and the demands of the public. To improve the credibility of statistics requires (1) enhancing the credibility of the statistical organizations, which includes the improvement of the organiztion and the development of the efficient management mechanism and paying attention to the source information and increasing the quality of the data;(2) improving the process to gather the information, which includes promoting the development of informatization and increasing the timeliness of the disclosure of information and accurately grasping the demands of the public for the information and realizing the balance between the demand and supply of the information;(3) controlling the terminal, which includes the scientific interpretation of the disclosed information, the improvement of the information disclosing system and the enhancement of the information feedback machanism after the disclosure of information; and (4) promoting the participation of the public into the statistical work, which mainly focuses on the development of the statistical quality of the public, the integration of the disclosure of statistics and the interpretation of the background and the facilitation of the respondance to the questions of the public.The possible innovations of the paper may lie in the following aspects:(1) in terms of the current literature, there has been quite a lot of comprehensive analysis of the methods and factors to increase the credibility of the government; however, the research based on the statistical information is still scarce. This paper tries to carry out research from the perspective of statistics and provides a new insight for the release of governmental information.(2) this paper takes Sichuan for a sample, and tries to make a deep study of the openness and credibility of statistical information of Sichuan Province and provide some recommendations for the release of the statistics on the nationwide basis.