Research On Early Warning Index Of Chinese Rural Society

By early warning of the rural community, the construction of early warning indicator system, the preparation of early warning indicators, rural social stability condition can be real-time monitored, and the development in rural areas can be forecasted. The rural community early warning of pre-control management can effectively prevent the occurrence of serious incidents that affect the social stability. It is a hot topic of current theoretical research.Social early warning indicators are based on the perspective of sociology, anthropology, using the Delphi method and anthropological research methods, the index system is built through social and economic statistics. The index system is lack of scientific which result in inaccuracy of the social situation it reflectsTaking into account the social mentality is the most direct reflection of the social stability conditions of rural, social psychology is not only more accurately, but also a keen grasp of the social stability conditions in rural areas. structural equation modeling has unparalleled advantages in the analysis of the latent variable in the social early warning. So, this article starts with the survey data of social mentality, using structural equation modeling to build early warning indicator system of rural society, and prepare the early warning indicators.The article first systematic analysis of the macro background of the warning of rural society, including farmers’ political, economic, psychological survival of the state, the rural social and political environment, pursuant to the mentality of a variety of factors affecting social stability in rural areas, including the work of the government, individuals life, and social environment, the future development of the four mentality elements. We assume that the four aspects of social psychology can fully reflect the situation of social stability in rural areas, and then design a questionnaire for the results of the analysis. Take the Chinese Academy of rural village of100observed "project as a platform conducting investigations to obtain data, using principal component factor analysis to establish the framework of rural society early warning indicator system, build the structural equation modeling under the framework, and prepare the rural community early warning indicators. The study found that the established social early warning indicators to farmers in four areas of social mentality have a good description of the rural social stability conditions, with a strong scientific and practical. The paper is divided into five parts:In the first part, the domestic and foreign studies are reviewed from two aspects: social early warning methods, social early warning indicators; described the contents of this study and the innovation.The second part introduces the basic theory of two aspects of the structural equation modeling, social psychology and social warning, the article uses the research methods and the principle described that laid the basis for further study of this article.The third part introduces the rural social warning system analysis. First analyses the macro background of the rural society of early warning, including the survival of the farmers’ political, economic, psychological state and the rural social and political environment. And then accordingly the farmers in his government work, personal life, social environment and future development of the four aspects of social mentality is analyzed. Finally, some characteristics of the rural early warning indicators of the social state of mind investigation is shown.In the fourth part, the rural social early warning indicator system is constructed, introduced the process of building rural community early warning indicator system based on social mentality survey, including the principle of index selection index selection, questionnaire design and implementation of the framework of indicator system, etc.In the fifth part, early warning indicators of rural social modeling and empirical are analyzed and calculated, the process of structural equation modeling of the rural social early warning indicator system to determine the weight of index system is described in detail, and the early warning indicators of rural society is prepared;The sixth part introduces the conclusions and outlook, and a brief summary of some of the conclusions of the article, and the lack of research in this article and future research directions are descripted.