The Application Of BISAP And POP Score System To Predict Complications Of Acute Pancreatitis

Objective:Assess the value of BISAP and POP score for complications and prognostic the patients with acute pancreatitis (AP).Methods:Retrospectively study102AP patients hospitalized in Xiangya Hospital of Central South University from January1in2010to March1in2012, and calculate the BISAP and POP scores of patients of AP admitted to hospital within24hours to observe the local complications,the systemic complications, organ failure and pancreatic necrosis, draw the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) according to the score of all patients and calculate the area under the calculated curve (AUC) to compare the difference between two scoring systems in the assessment of complications in the sensitivity, specificity, Youden immediate and positive likelihood ratio (LRPT).Results:The BISAP scoring system for the severity of acute pancreatitis, local complications, systemic complications, organ failure and pancreatic necrosis, the AUC are0.864、0.808、0.791、0.842and0.871respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the BISAP score predicting organ failure in AP are0.72and0.93respectively.The Youden index and the positive likelihood ratio of the BISAP score in predicting the severity of AP is0.65and14.35respectively.The diagnostic thresholds of BISAP score for judging the severity of AP, local complications, systemic complications,organ failure and pancreatic necrosis are all2. The POP score for the severity of acute pancreatitis, local complications, systemic complications, organ failure and pancreatic necrosis,the AUC are0.762,0.731,0.838,0.879and0.766respectively;The sensitivity and specificity of the POP score for organ failure in AP is0.84and0.82, The Youden index and the positive likelihood ratio of the POP score forecasting organ failure are0.66and4.70.The diagnostic thresholds of the POP for judging the severity of AP in local complications, systemic complications, organ failure and pancreatic necrosis are8,8,8,9,8respectively.Conclusions:The BISAP and POP scores of patients with mild acute pancreatitis is lower than patients with severe acute pancrestitis;The BISAP score is better than the POP score in assessing the severity and pancreatic necrosis of acute pancreatitis;The BISAP score and the POP score have no significant differences in predicting systemic complications, systemic complications and organ failure of acute pancreatitis.