An Analytical And Predictive Study On The Maternal Mortality Rates During2001-2010in Pingliang City

ObjectivesTo survey the current situations and the trend of the maternal mortality rates during2001-2010in Pingliang City, analyze the causes and the social factors and predict the trend in the next decade in order to provide a scientific basis for the prevention, control and reduction of maternal mortalities in Pingliang City.MethodsThe current situation, trend, the causes of mortalities and the related social factors were first analyzed by surveying the maternal public health indexes such as maternal mortality rates, maternal care, etc during2001-2010in Pingliang City. The direct and indirect factors affecting the maternal mortality rates were then indentified through the approaches of descriptive statistics, single-factor correlation analysis and path analysis, respectively. Furthermore, situation and trend of the maternal mortality rates between2011and2020were predicted by gray model.ResultsIn2010, the maternal mortality rates in Lingtai County and Zhuanglang County (both counties belong to Pingliang City) were lower than the national average and the average levels of Gansu Province. From2001to2010, the figures of each district and county of Pingliang City declined, with fluctuations. There were no major changes in the proportion of causes of maternal mortality in Pingliang City. Obstetric hemorrhage was the most cause resulting in death, and there was an increase in mortalities related to amniotic fluid embolism. The direct causes affecting maternal mortality in Pingliang City included the rates of hospital delivery, the numbers of villages with telephone access, the enrollment rates of girls in rural areas and the rates of participation in New Rural Cooperative Medical Services. Other factors, such as the regional GDP and fiscal revenues, indirectly affected the figures in diverse ways. In2020, the maternal mortality rates in Jingchuan and Huating County would still be lower than the national average and the average of Gansu Province, whereas the rates of other counties would likely be considerably higher than the national and provincial average. It can be estimated that the maternal mortality rates in Jingchuan, Huating and Chongxin County would decrease from2011to2020, while a minor increase in other counties and districts would likely be seen in this period.ConclusionsThe maternal mortality rates in each district and county of Pingliang are generally declining. The situations are obvious in Chongxin and Jingning County. Obstetric hemorrhage remains the most important cause; meanwhile mortalities caused by amniotic fluid embolism are increasing. There are many reasons affecting the maternal mortality rate, with the rate of parturition in hospital being the major direct factor, for instance the economic statuses directly or indirectly, to some extent, indirectly affect the maternal mortality rate of every district and county in Pingliang City.