Climate Change In Ili River Basin And Its Infuence On Agirculture

The agricultural production is closely related to climate change. The crop quality and yield isdominated largely by light, heat, water, gas and other climatic factors in addition to the decisionbiological characteristics of crops and people management measuresdomination. Based on whathave mentioned above, thearticle selects Ili River Basin agricultural region as the researchobjects,using the linear trend, cumulative anomaly, t-test and kriging interpolation method, andanalyzes of the agricultural climate resources’ trend, and climatic factors of theannual meantemperature,≥0℃accumulated temperature,≥10℃accumulated temperature and the frost freeperiod of Ili River Basin in recent51years,and these factors changein the plains, hills, basins.Onthis basis, combined with the requirements of the relevant meteorological crop biologicalindicators, detailed analysis of the main crop harvests, sowing and crop yield trends in Ili RiverBasin in recent51years.To provide a theoretical basis about actively respond and adapt to climatechange on agricultural production effects Ili River Basin，Further studied on the regular pattern ofthe impact of climate change on agriculture,and to seek profit method of avoiding disadvantage ofclimate change on agriculture.The preliminary conclusions drawn from the study are follows：（1）In recent51years the annual temperature increase by2.2℃,≥0℃accumulatedtemperatureincrease by458.5℃·d,≥10℃accumulated temperatureincrease by448.8℃·d. Inspatial distribution,the trend rate of the annual average temperature in plain and hilly area are0.44℃/10ahigher than mountain basin0.09℃/10a, the trend rate of≥10℃accumulated temperature inhilly area is99.6℃·d/10ahigher than plain and mountain basin, the trend rate of≥0℃accumulated temperature and the frost period in hilly area is94.3℃·d/10aand6.4d/10a,all ishigher than plain and mountain basin.（2）In Ili River Basin,the annual precipitation increased82.77mm in rencent51years, inmountain basin increased104mm, increased78.6mm in plains, inhilly area is increasing37mm.（3）Temperatureincreases in recent51years, which made the≥10℃accumulatedtemperature in plain has reached to3666.0℃·d,let the cropping of the plain change from one cropsa year to two crops a year since1990s.（4）The climate change in Ili river basin makes the sowing of spring wheat andcornadvanced12d or9d.（5）In the context of Ili River basin climate change, the climate production of wheatwasdeclined, corn was increasing.