Research On Environmental Carrying Capacity And Early Warning Of Island Tourism

With the rapid development of marine economy, island tourism has newopportunities for development. There are many islands in China, many severeproblems occurred while the large-scale development of island tourism, thefrangibility of island ecosystems、 the deficiency of infrastructures and otherconditions restricted the sustainable development of island tourism.Tourismenvironmental carrying capacity is an important indicator to measure the sustainabledevelopment of island tourism. Therefore, it has very important significance to studythe theory and methods of environmental carrying capacity of island tourism.According to a large quantity of references on this topic, this paper definesrelated concepts, and sets up evaluation index system of island tourism environmentalcarrying capacity based on tourism sustainable development theory by using methodcombining qualitative with quantitative analysis and theoretical with demonstrationanalysis. Finally, select Changdao as a case, analyze the impact on the natural,economic and social environmental systems, then use the analytic hierarchy processand fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to study warning comprehensiveevaluation of Changdao tourism environmental carrying capacity, use SPSS toanalyze the short-term forecasting of indicators, reflect carrying strength of tourismenvironment caused by tourism activities, in order to guide the development ofChangdao tourism sustainable development. The main contents are as follows:(1) Based on the analysis of tourism carrying capacity, built island touristenvironment carrying capacity evaluation index system from the view of tourismenvironment. Use the analytic hierarchy process approach to divide island tourismenvironmental carrying capacity into natural environmental carrying capacity,economic environmental carrying capacity and social environmental carrying capacity.The indicator system including thirty specific indicators established with the frequency analysis，theoretical analysis and expert consultation method.(2) Analyze the operational processes of the early warning system by combiningthe related theory of tourism environmental carrying capacity and early warning, thendivide early warning system of island tourist environment carrying capacity into fivemain parts, including early warning indicators module, index weight module, thewarning interval module, early warning evaluation modules and pre-controlcountermeasures module.(3) This thesis set example of Changdao in Shandong,Analyze the environmentcarrying capacity of Changdao, using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method tostudy the early warning evaluation, the evaluation result is that tourism environmentalcarrying capacity of Changdao is weak carrying overall, release light alarm signal toreflect the condition of tourist environment carrying capacity. According to themaximum membership degree principle, the natural environmental carrying capacityis weak carrying, the economic environmental carrying capacity is slight overcarrying and the social environmental carrying capacity is weak carrying. Determinethe limit indicators of environmental carrying capacity of the scenic spot to study theshort-term dynamic analysis of tourism environmental carrying capacity.(4) According to the early warning evaluation results of tourism environmentalcarrying capacity, put forward some regulation countermeasures suitable forChangdao tourism sustainable development from the perspective of ecologicalenvironment protection, tourism resources development, infrastructure constructionand the management of scenic spot. The contents of special measures includeimproving the elastic force of ecological environment to maintain the quality oftourism environment; improving the utilization of tourism resources to enrich tourismproducts; improving the infrastructure construction to enhance entering convenienceand ensure the satisfaction of tourists; monitoring the number of visitors in tourism slack season and peak season by establishing early warning systems, to avoid theenvironment damage caused by the uneven distribution of tourists.