An Econometric Study On Forest Fires

Based on mathematic,statistics,economics,finance and disaster,this study attempted to buildan econometric model,which focused on the content and research methods of the statisticalcharacteristics,impact of forestry production,economic losses assessment,evaluating of economiclosses assessment, benefit evaluation of disaster reduction, risk management and insuranceratemaking．Then,rationality and feasibility of the forest fires econometric model,which includedresearch system,evaluating contents and evaluating methods,were demonstrated by an empiricalanalysis on forest fires data of Fujian Province in20years(1990-2009)．The main results were asfollowing：(1)The indexes,which reflected statistical characteristics of forest fires,comprised cumulativeincidence (control)area,average incidence (control)area,standard deviation,coefficient of variation,disaster prevention rate and so on．In order to analysis the impact of forest fires on forestry production,this paper made a comparative analysis with other forest disasters such as forest pests,forest freezedisaster,forest floods,Finally,their impact on forestry production by improved gray correlationanalysis．(2)In this paper,the economic losses of forest fires was evaluated by evaluation of classificationmethod which covered the loss of forest resources,the forest loss of environmental resources,directeconomic losses and indirect economic losses and．Then, catastrophe progression method was used toevaluate and analyze the economic losses of forest fires．(3)Disaster economic evaluation method,which was used to evaluate and analyze the benefitsof disaster mitigation investment．(4)In this paper,we researched the risk identification,risk analysis,risk assessment,riskprediction,risk control and processing of forest fires based on the theory and research of natural disasterrisk management,however,the focus of the study were risk assessment and prediction of forestfires．Assess the risk by disaster risk index(DRI),the analytic hierarchy process(AHP),weightedcomposite assessment(WCA),at the same time,gray prediction model GM(1,1) for forest fire riskprediction．(5)Quasi-public goods attribute,positive externalities,adverse selection,moral hazard,lackof effective demand from foresters and lack of effective supply from insurer seriously hampered thedevelopment of forest insurance．To solve the problem,the policy forestry insurance became theinevitable choice for the development of forest insurance which based on financial subsidies and policysupport．The most crucial issues of development of forest insurance was insurance ratemaking,whichwas more difficult and complex than general property insurance although it subordinated to propertyinsurance．On the basis of introducing the method of insurance ratemaking for general non-lifeinsurance,the study tried to import loss distribution fitting model,short-term aggregate risk model andreliability theory to solve the problem of forest insurance ratemaking． (6)According to the econometric models of forest fires,we did the empirical analysis based onthe data of Fujian Province,the main results were following：①The occurrence of forest fires in Fujian Province was at the forefront in China,the cumulativeincidence of forest fires was69562from1950to2009,which accounted for9.17%of the totalnumber of60years and the overall ranking was fifth．Improved grey correlation analysis showed thatthe impact on forestry production of forest pests was greater than forest fires．②On the on hand,economic losses of forest fire in Fujian Province was serious,the cumulative losses was4.50×109Yuan which was2.88%of the total value of forestry production in Fujian Province from1990to2009．On the other hand,economic losses of forest fire in Fujian Province was volatile too,the largestloss of7.60×108Yuan in2000while the smallest was4.06×107Yuan in1990．The results showed,by catastrophe progression method,that the years of economic losses was severe more than slight,overall,economic losses of forest fires was serious．Specially,the losses increased remarkably afterthe year of2000．③Mainly due to the sharp increase of the number of forest fires and the upgrade ofcomprehensive value in per unit area of forestry area,the benefits of disaster mitigation investmentwas not satisfactory in Fujian Province．④The individual years of forest fire risk were fluctuatedvolatility,but,the overall performance showed a steady upward trend and disaster risk of forest fireswas increasing in Fujian Province．⑤The prediction model of the risk of forest fires disasterpossibility(PFFD)was that：x (1)(k)-29.985e0.008(k20)35.059,and the model showed that theforest fire disaster risk occurrence possibility was stable and with slowly dropping trend of FujianProvince． The potential losses of forest fires (DFFD) prediction model wasx (1)(k)15.234e0.066(k20)-4.388,which suggested that the potential losses of forest fires inFujian Province presented a monotonically increasing trend and the upward trend obviously．Theprediction model of forest fire disaster risk index(FFDRI) was that：x (1)(k)4.060e0.056(k20)-1.403,the results of the model showed that the FFDRI showed amonotonically increasing trend in Fujian Province．⑥The development of policy forestry insurance inFujian Province should make great efforts as following：set up the wholesome forestry insurancepublicity mechanism to improve risk awareness of foresters,consummate the types of forestryinsurance,establish a sound support mechanisms of policy forestry insurance,improve financialsubsidies system and policy support．...