Analysis On The Relationship Between Gross Power Of Agricultural Machinery In Jiangsu Province And Influencing Factors Based On Time Series

Agricultural mechanization is one of the important aspects of agricultural modernization and is the engine in the construction of new country and is the guarantee of establishing harmonious society. The gross power of agricultural machinery can reflect the overall level of the development of agricultural modernization in one area and is one important index of assessing the agricultural modernization degree in one region. The purpose to build the mathematical model between the gross power of agricultural machinery and it's influencing factors is to analyze the influencing extent that dominant factors plays, so that we can explore some rules in the process of the agricultural mechanization development.This paper collected relative data from nineteen eighty nine to two thousand and six, we built the auto regressive model based on time series, the result showed that the order of six dominant factors of influencing the gross power of agricultural machinery in jiangsu province is the average income of farmer and the areas of seeding grain and the financial support of the government and the level of farmer's education and the per unit yield of grain. Their respectively correlation coefficient with the gross power of agricultural machinery is zero point nine three nine six and zero point nine three eight four and zero point eight nine two four and zero point eight double seven night and zero point eight six seven one and zero seven double two four.The AR model achieved much higher precision (R=0.9628) and it's average forecasting error is zero point six eight percent by using this model to forecast the gross power of agricultural machinery of jiangsu province in the years of two thousand five and two thousand six.The average forecasting error of others classic models including logistic model of three variables and Combination prediction of agricultural equipment level based on Shapley value and mixed grey neural network and self-configuring ANN model respectively are eight point two four percent and one point eight seven percent and two point five two percent and two point seven three percent at the same condition, this means the effect of forecasting of auto regressive model is much more perfect. The features of discrepancy is formed in the process of agricultural machinery development due to the differences of natural resources and social economy and technology in the south and middle and north in jiangsu province,so we can't select the same developmental item and velocity and scale in the same time.This paper also intensively analyzed the gross power of agricultural machinery in changzhou and taizhou and suqian city of jiangsu province by utilizing the ARmodel,the result showed that the precision of the model in changzhou and taizhou and suqian city is much higher(R2=0.9982, R2=0.9628, R2=0.9648).The dominant factors of influencing the gross power of agricultural machinery in changzhou city is the per total value in one area and the rate of surplus laborer transferring and the areas of seeding and the level of mechanical production in main grain; the dominant factors of influencing the gross power of agricultural machinery in suqian city is the average income of farmer and the labor of primary industry and the Engel coefficient of farmers; the dominant factors of influencing the gross power of agricultural machinery in taizhou city is the total value of farming and the number of labor of farming and the average income of farmer and the labor of primary industry.So the average income of farmer and the labor of primary industry are the dominant factors of influcing the gross power of agricultural machinery in changzhou city and suqian city and taizhou city,and the discrepancy is unfold that others factors plays in different regions.This paper applied AR model to analyze the gross power of agricultural machinery in changzhou and taizhou and suqian city and jiangsu province. This model can explain and analyze the rules and trend and reasons of the gross power of agricultural machinery development in a more rational and reasonable way. This has crucial significance for boosting agricultural mechanization development in a fully and fast way.