Chinese Stock Market Complexity Analysis And Short-term Forecasts

Complexity science is an interdisciplinary method, is a new development stage of system science, and is called'science of 21st century'. This article tries to study and analyze the characteristics of the stock market of China from the complexity science perspective. Complexity science is very different from the linear models of the classical capital market theory and has not been widely used in this field. At the same time, because of the exploratory features of this kind of method, different scholars have very different conclusions from their own empirical study. There are many arguments about whether the stock market of china has complexity characteristics and whether complexity science is suitable for it.Choose Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index as the objects of analysis, test the probability distributions of rate and logarithmic rate of daily returns of two indices, find out that these probability distributions are inconsistent with the classical theoretical description. Then discuss the rationality of the complexity perspective on this basis. Using fractal theory and chaos theory in the field of complexity science, calculate the values of various characteristic parameters, confirm that the stock market of china has corresponding complexity characteristics. Using complexity science method, make short-term forecast and simulation of Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, verify the correctness and feasibility of applications of complexity science in this field.