Research On Risk Evaluation Of The Gas Of Dangerous Goods Transportation On Road

As the sole dangerous goods classified by its physics form, the gas of dangerous goods have inflammable, explosive, poisonous and such other hazardous characteristics. In the process of transportation, once vehicles carrying the gas of dangerous goods happen to leak, fire, blast and other accidents, then those residents live along the line of accidents will suffer grave losses of life and property. Therefore, how to reduce transportation risk by risk evaluation is of great realistic importance to ensure the safety of the gas of dangerous goods transportation. It turns out, the possibility of the gas of dangerous goods road transport accident happening and serious consequences have their own characteristics, and currently lack the pointed research inland. Hence, this paper begins from the domestic accidents, based on defining the relevant factors and accident-cause theories, by through analyzing the probability and consequences of the gas of dangerous goods transportation, builds the risk evaluation model of personal casualty considering the time-varied factors. The main research contents as follows:Firstly, comprehensively reviews the literatures relating the risk evaluation of dangerous goods road transportation, to learn the current situation and development trends domestic and overseas. Through the analysis of domestic gas of dangerous goods road transportation accidents, summarizes the regular patterns related with the link, time, place, gas category and transport volume, vehicle and packing type, vehicle classification, causes and consequences, and such on. Then, based on the System Engineering theory, analyzes the influencing factors of the gas of dangerous goods transportation from the angle of People-things-environment, and points out the accident-cause theories which is because of the inside and outside philosophy theory.Secondly, thoroughly analyzes the probability of accidence, based on defining the basic probability of accidence in view of people, vehicles, containers, goods and other internal causes, introduces the modifying factors of accident liability because of the external causes, then adopts the ignition probability to get the probabilities of fire disaster, blast, toxicity, and finally builds the model of the gas of dangerous goods road transportation which has a time-varying characteristic.Thirdly, thoroughly analyzes the consequences of the gas of dangerous goods. This paper not only proposes the specific methods of quantitatively calculating the number of people on road and off road, but also introduces the cushion coefficient, the coefficient of traffic flow change, the coefficient of ratio of people travelling and risk rated ratio coefficient to modify the number of people influenced by accidents, and finally builds the time-varied model which will calculate the number of people influenced by accidents of the gas of dangerous goods road transportation.Fourthly, it introduces the personal casualties risk and the accumulated risk of casualties, revises the traditional model, in consideration of the scientific and realistic impact affected by the probability of casualties and the probability of casualties accumulated, and finally builds the time-varied model which will evaluate the risk of people casualties.In the end, it chooses a company case of Yangquan City, Shan Xi Province whose main business is the gas of dangerous goods transportation, uses the above models to analyze and evaluate, accordingly tests and verifies the validity and feasibility of these models.