Carbon Emissions Evolutionary Dynamic System And Evolutionary Scenario Analysis

Because of China's foreign trade, China's economic has a growth stage. The demand of energy has a significant growth, which makes China's carbon emissions began rapid growth. About two-thirds of increment of carbon dioxide emissions around world comes from China after 2000. China's carbon dioxide emissions have been one of the hottest problems in the world. As the big country of carbon emissions, it is very significant to analyze China's carbon emissions, which is advantageous to China's sustainable development.Based on the present situation of the carbon emissions in China, a new dynamic evolutionary model of carbon emissions evolution is established by using the nonlinear least-square method and regression analysis method. Besides, this paper explores dynamic evolution rules of of carbon emissions from the angle of dynamic system, which predicts the long-term carbon emissions in China.In Chapter three, based on the present situation of carbon emissions in Yangtze Delta, this chapter builds a nonlinear dynamic system model is established by using the nonlinear method and regression analysis method. In addition, we discuss and evolutionary analyze on the total carbon emissions in Yangtze Delta by using the dynamic system model. Finally, this chapter predicts the long-term carbon emissions evolutionary trend in this area.In Chapter four, based on the status quo of carbon emissions in China, least-square method is used to establish the dynamic evolutionary system of carbon emissions. This chapter introduces dynamic evolutionary factors, advance rate of carbon emissions, deducing relative theories, such as Change Trends Theorem and Evolutionary Theorem. Furthermore, the dynamic evolutionary model is introduced and evolutionary scenario analysis is also conducted by modulating evolutionary coefficient and critical time. Based on the above observations, carbon emissions of China are predicted and evolutionary analyzed.In Chapter five, based on the study of dynamic systems, a model of dynamic evolutionary system of carbon emissions due to coal is introduced, in order to predict coal consumption and carbon emissions due to coal. Furthermore, four scenarios of carbon emissions due to coal are introduced and evolutionary analyzed, quantizing analysis of china's future carbon emissions due to coal. At last, the corresponding conclusion and measures are put forward in this chapter.