Risk Conditions And Farmers' Production Decisions Behavior Analysis: Based Motad Model,

Agriculture is a typically risky sector. With the promotion of agricultural market-orientated reform, the environment for agricultural development in China has already changed greatly. Agricultural risk is becoming more diversified with more complication. It is of theoretical and practical significance for agricultural policy and farmer's production decision to reasonally estimate the risk level in agricultural production which farming households faced, and then to analyze farmer's decision behavior and to reveal the mechanism of the decision-making in agricultural production under risk and its optimal reation results.After systematically summarizing the relevant theoretical and empirical researches in literature, especially concerning risk analysis model and decision theory at both home and abroad, the "Minimization Of Total Absolute Deviation Model"( MOTAD Model), which is widely used in the past years, combined the actual conditions of two different "typical" peasant households in different regions in Zhejiang province to build "Farming Risk decision MOTAD Model, in order to simulate the optimal decision-making under risk in two different "typical peasant household". By compared the optimal results in the different farmer's production and from the aspects of production conbination, factor input, expected income and risk level, factor input and detailed result of income, etc.. And then reveal from the level of microcosmic that the decision-making mechanism under risk of them.And then, based on the actual conditions of peasant household " and using domestic and international experience for reference, design two risk management " scenarios "-" implement' made-to-order farming ' " and " implement output insurance ", and simulate the optimization of the simulation reacts of risk decision under the corresponding scenarios of two " typical peasant households " to receive " the scene result". Then, by comparing every group of" scenario results" to the " initial result" of different "typical peasant household", and every group of "scenario result" of different "typical peasant household" under the same scenarios. Then sum up the results to reveal from the level of microcosmic that the optimization reacting of decision-making under risk of different kinds of "typical peasant household" in different areas and the validity of the risk management measures in scenarios.Finally, mainly based on the simulation results of the MOTAD Models and use international successful experience for reference, and put forward the goal of construction agricultural risk management system of our country from two aspects of microcosmic and macroscopic. In microcosmic, agricultural producers should improve one's own quality, strengthen risk management consciousness; Develop made-to-order fanning, advance agricultural industrialization; Update the agricultural production technology, reduce the output risk etc.. In the macroscopic respect, should explore the new mode of the agricultural insurance , develop the agricultural insurance undertaking of our country; develop the system of prices protection to reduce the price risk; improve agricultural information service, reduce production blindness; comprehensive administration pollution to improve the output and quality of agricultural products etc..