Research On Ecological Security Assessment And Prediction In Wulong Based On The Improved Ecological Footprint

Rapid economic development, population growth and changes in spending patterns make the demand on natural ecosystems growing, people need more and more natural resources. increasing resource constraints, severe environmental pollution and a deteriorating ecosystem are the main constraint on economic development and social progress. How to quantify the impact of human activities on the ecological environment has attracted considerable attention. Ecological footprint theory is an effective way to measure the consumption of natural resources from human social activities and the size of the service function of ecological system in the area. Then the result calculated can effectively direct regional ecological progress. Under this background, based on related studies of scholars from domestic and abroad, this paper calculated the ecological security time series of Wulong in China from 2009 to 2013. Besides, predictions of that from 2014 to 2023 were performed with the Gray Model method developed by Deng in the 1980’s. The security state and trend calculated can effectively direct practice of Wulong in the future.Firstly, this paper introduced some ways to make sure the results calculated of ecological footprint, ecological capacity and ecological state(ecological remainder/ecological deficit) can direct practice of Wulong effectively. e.g. this paper revised the definition of fossil energy land after analyzing the carbon circulation of terrain eco-system,(the new definition is forest and grassland required for the absorption carbon emission), and then, based on Net Eco-system Production(NEP), the net deposition of carbon in vegetable body, the global average carbon absorption ability of forest and grassland were evaluated; combined with the data of heat conversion and carbon discharge, the footprint of fossil energy and electricity were recalculated.Then, based on the modified ecological footprint model, ecological footprinttime series, ecological capacity time series and ecological state(ecological remainder/ecological deficit) time series were calculated from 2009 to 2013. In Wulong, the ecological footprint increased annually, the order of size of ecological footprint is fossil, cropland, grassland, building lands and forest. The ecological capacity in Wulong also increased annually, the order of size of ecological capacity is cropland, fossil, forest and water. In Wulong, ecological remainder exists in cropland, forest and fossil; ecological deficit exists in grassland, water and building land.Afterwards, predictions of that from 2014 to 2023 were performed with the Gray Model method, and the ecological security trend is further discussed, which suggests the prospects of the ecosystem of Wulong can not be optimistic. Ecological remainder exists as a whole until around 2026, although the load of human activities in the region over the ecological capacity in respects of fossil and water. Furthermore, ecological remainder is predicted decreasing annually. A detailed the causes leading to this situation had been analyzed and recommendations accordingly had been made. The ecological footprint of Wulong increased at a rate of 5.1% per year from 2014 to 2023, the ecological capacity of Wulong increased at a rate of 1.6% per year from 2014 to 2023. The rate of ecological capacity less than the rate of ecological footprint which means Wulong has to face the growing pressure of ecology.Finally, ecological state and problems in practice of Wulong were analyzed. Based on these results, measures to reduce the ecological deficit for Wulong were suggested such as adopting suitable technology to increase efficiency in resource use, changing manners of production and consumption, and protecting the environment.