Land Use / Land Cover Change In Remote Sensing Monitoring And Spatial Dynamics Of Forecast

Land use and Land Cover Change reflected the alteration of society and the ecological environment of an area. With the development of economy and acceleration of urbanization, its caused the land use and land Cover drastic change and holded the basic condition of the resources and environment all around in good time seems to be to very important. Fast dynamic monitoring to land use change made use of advanced technology of remote sensing and GIS, which can holded spatial information and time-series information about land use. Making use of the model of Cellular Automata based on the ideaistic of complex system to research the complex Behavior about the process of LUCC, discussing it quantitative and Forecasting the future condition can provide scientific basis for the area policymaker to valuate the condition of land use. Therefore, the typical region on the small spatial scale chosed to carry on remote sensing monitoring and space dynamic prediction of LUCC, which not only offered decision support for economic development in a region, but also riched the research of global land use change.Taking Jinan city as a case, configuration,process,mechanism and model study as core, the dissertation here carried out dynamic monitoring the land use and land cover change from 2000 to 2004 in research area by two TM images and the evolution tendency of land use in future was simulated and predicted, then analyzed the execution results by the computation of correlative index between discrete spatial fields based on entropy. The major contents and research results was as following: (1) It was a fast and efeicient method for monitoring to land use and land cover change by remote sensing image. In the study, the technology of RS and GIS was adapted to process the each image through preconditioning and enhancement handling, then adapted the method of extraction by supervised classification and visual judgement together, realized the higher precisional extraction of land use information. The results of the monitoring suggested that from 2000 to 2004 there was no significant change about land use and land cover except the urban land and the unused land in Jinan city;The total land use status transformed into the intensive land; In changed types, farmland transformed into other land due to advantageous geographic position and the difference of comparative economic benefit and its the main source of the increase of area of other land, the unused land distributed in beach area and it transformed into farm land mostly.(2) CA can simulate and express the distinct dynamic temporal-spatial variation of complex phenomena in the system through defining the relationship of cellular neighborhood and appropriate conversion rule and it can be applied in the research method for geographic system which contained the character of complex space-time. the dissertation here carried out simulating and predicting the land use change on 2008 and 2012 by the land-use and forecasting model. The results of the forecasting suggested that with time lapse, the area of farmland in Jinan city was reduced, the area of urban land was increasd and grew around the boundary, but there was no significant changes about forest land,grassland,water area and unused land.(3) the distributed data of land use and growth data of urban land simulated and predicted by CA were the fieid of discrete space which was continuation in uniform spaces and dispersion in attribute character, every kind of correlation index of space statistics and the degree of association index of grey system theory both can not calculate the correlation. The dissertation here constructed a computation of correlative index between discrete spatial fields based on entropy and calculate the correlation. The results of the forecasting by CA suggested that the computation of correlative index between discrete spatial fields was an effective method which checked the result simulated and predicted by CA.