| With economic development and the acceleration of industrial upgrading, more and more high-tech industries trigger an upsurge of another round of technology boom, and drive new economic growth point, creating a wealth of another myth. At present, the high-tech industry which is a pillar industry in the era of knowledge economy has become the focus of modern international economic and technological competition. However, the high-tech industry has high-risk, high-return, and high-uncertainty characteristics and is very prone to failure at the early start. The prices of high-tech listed company's shares traded on the secondary market are often ups and downs and unpredictable, which also makes investors difficult to grasp the value of the company. And, the question how to estimate the intrinsic value of high-tech companies is also increasingly concerned by theorists. Because these companies themselves have some different characteristics from traditional businesses, which put forward a new challenge to the traditional theory of business value where is the significance of the topics of this article.This paper argues that the traditional discounted cash flow method ignore flexible management value, strategic value and the choice of investment opportunity, and is a relatively static and rigid method of evaluation, so it can not objectively evaluate the true value of high-tech enterprises in a lot of circumstances, and it will easily lead to poor decisions. In the face of the non-adaptability of traditional value method, real options are put forward to compensate.Real options theory at the first time applies the pricing method of financial derivatives to price the opportunity cost of actual business operations, management flexibility and interest objectives, which provides a good way of thinking and quantitative decision-making methods for the study of uncertainty. Real option theory which gives full consideration to all kinds of flexibility value in investment activities is a major leap forward in the investment decision-making theory and provides the necessary supplement for the valuation theory. That is why it is theoretical important to fully dig out the inherent value of real options in high-tech enterprises and to apply the real options approach to valuation of the high-tech enterprises. This paper selects the Internet as a research object, and extends the traditional theory of enterprise valuation analysis, striving to find a new type of valuation method which is appropriate to the valuation of high-tech companies.The main contents of this article are as follows:In the first chapter, the part of the literature review describes the basic theory of real options approach, practical applications and the latest developments in real options method. And then the paper introduces the reason of choosing the topic and significance of this article, as well as the main contents of this article, and innovation and shortcomings.This second chapter reveals the essential features and inherent logic of real options through the two angles of comparative analysis of real options theory and principles of traditional investment methods, as well as real options and financial options. And the comparison of advantages and disadvantages reveals the environment of application of the two methods.The third chapter analyzes the characteristics of Internet industry which is different from the traditional industries from the development process, industry chain structure, business models and competition pattern. In addition, this chapter introduces a foreign classic Internet company valuation method-Schwartz & Moon continuous real options model, and the model assumptions, inherent principle, the solution process are given, which is the theoretical groundwork for the latter part of the text.Chapter four uses continuous real option model to price one of the most representative of the Internet companies, and uses a foreign popular commercial risk analysis software-Crystal Ball to do the Monte Carlo simulation of the model.And the paper gives the sensitivity analysis of key variables, revealing the factors that affect the company's intrinsic value. To make more convincing empirical results, this paper does a whole empirical analysis on China's listed Internet company home and abroad, and comes to the conclusion that the Internet companies have a large number of real options value.Chapter five is to sum up the conclusions of this analysis.This paper uses the knowledge of finance, investment science, operations research, quantitative economics, combining theoretical research and empirical research, as well as qualitative and quantitative research. This paper draws on theories of foreign research results and then uses it for the valuation of Chinese enterprises. A large number of empirical studies verify the model's applicability and compatibility, and effectively test and analyze of value of real options of China's listed Internet companies.The innovations of this article is that it depicts the way of thinking of real options from real options theory of origin, the internal mechanism, the general method, by comparative analysis method,and the option pricing method is applied to China's whole Internet industry.This paper tries to apply real option theory combined by the traditional method of valuation, to the value analysis of Internet enterprise through empirical analysis, which provides a profound grasp of the factors that affect the company value. The paper has made a useful supplement to the traditional valuation and tries to introduce a new perspective for valuation of high-tech companies. |
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