| As an important field in global change research, the research on land use and land cover change is no longer just confined to the quantitative description on land use structure and quantity with the development of the remote sensing dynamic monitoring technology and spatial analysis technology based on GIS. More and more researches are emphasizing on spatio-temporal changes and its processes in land use change study in order to gain a better understanding of land use change processes and its mechanisms, further through timely adjustment of human economic activity, and implementation of land resources sustainable use finally. As an emerging crosscutting discipline, Landscape Ecology has great advantage in the research of landscape pattern changes and its process. Because of land use change with the characteristics of the original ecosystem, and the land plots of different land use types are very similarly to the patches in landscape ecology in the structure and function. In view of this, this paper introduces the landscape ecology principles and methods to study the spatio-temporal changes of land use relies on the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40571119-land use spatial data mining method and its application,and a new round land use general planning of Jinan. Taking Changqing District as an example, this paper has deeply analysis on the regional land use change process and simulates the trend of land use change.Taking three stages of land use status which were interpreted from TM remote sensing image of Changqing District at 1995, 2000, 2005 as the main data sources, this paper carried out the fllowing studies:(1) The change of land use structure and the conversion between different land use types are deeply analyzed using the models such as land use dynamic degree model, land use transfer matrix during 1995-2005. Constructed the tendency model of land use types conversion, the advantages conversion between different land use types were analyzed.(2) The changes of landscape pattern in Changqing District were analyzed using landscape metrics and landscape adjacency matrix. The 3D landscape model which is visually displayed the spatial pattern of land use was build by means of digital elevation models, and further the relationship between the spatial pattern of land use and topographic factors was studied.(3) Based on the platform of IDRISI, the trends of land use structure and spatial pattern in Changqing District were simulated using CA-Markov model through the land use type conversion rules mining.The results show that the land use change in Changqing District has obviously the spatial-temporal differentiation. Looking from the time variation,the land use dynamic degree during 2000-2005 is higher than 1995-2000,and the type-matching between which has advantage conversion is also more. As speak to the landscape pattern, the patch density is increasing while the metrics of average patch area, aggregation index, and dominance index are decreasing, the landscape presents fragmentation. The shape index and the fractal dimension are increasing unceasingly which reflect that the human activities to the land are enhanced. In addition, in different slope and elevation region, the distribution and changes of different land use types are obviously different. Finally, a trend prediction of land use change was carried out. The results showed that the cultivated land of Changqing District will continuous decrease from 2005-2020, especially in 2005-2010. As to the construction land, urban area is continuous increasing while the rural settlement is decreasing. Their opposite trends showed that the two landuse types beginning to shift in the interactive relationship. |
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