Regional Land Use Pattern And Scenario Simulation Guided By Development Priority Zoning

The Strategy of development priority zones, proposed by the framework of "the National 11th Five-Year Plan", provides a new idea and paradigm to coordinate the development and protection in the progress of regional development. From the aspect of regional land use, the strategy must be defined in space and merged with regional land use combination pattern. In other words, different priority combination of land development, use, harness and protection (DUHP) shall form different land use structures, spatial distribution pattern and ecological, social and economic benefit. Therefore, it's very significant to decide the feasiable combination under different strategy of development priority zones in theory and practice.The paper uses Delphi and AHP to analyze the combination priority of DUHP, and the suitable priority combination of DUHP matched with the strategy of development priority zones is got by expert interview. The suitable combination under optimization development is U-H-H-D-P, D-U-H-P under important development, H-P-U-D under restricted development, and P-H-U-D under forbidden development.As a huge ecological, social and economic system, land use should be researched with system dynamics. Then from the view of Population, Resource, Environment and Development (PRED), the paper analyzed the relation of the strategy of development priority zones and regional land use, defined the variable (element) and system boundary of the strategy of development priority zones, land use, population, resource, environment and development subsystems according to system dynamics characteristic, and then analyzed the causal relationship among these variables, at last got the system flow diagram and system dynamic models. Taking Suichang County in Zhejiang Province for an example, the simulation analysis is taken under different strategies of development priority zones and priority combination of DUHP. The model is proved to be reasonable in parameter and effective in main function through test of auxiliary subsystem soundness, parameter sensitivity and history data consistency. The research results show the strategy is well merged with priority combination of DUHP by the system dynamics model with good feedback mechanism. Meanwhile, the land use structure is quite different under different strategies of development priority zones and priority combination of DUHP.At last, the paper analyzed the regional land use under the strategy of development zones as Suichang for an example. With the scenario simulation, the paper discusses the policy of the hook of plus and minus of urban and rural construction land, total farmland dynamic balance and returning farmland to forest, and provides a reference for policy making.