Research On Financial Risks Early-Warning System In Gansu Province

In recent years, financial risks' prevention and resolve increasingly become an important issue in the world. An obvious fact is that, a local financial risks accumulated to a certain level will be a regional financial crisis, and it will influence the other areas and the country's financial stability through specific channels .Regional financial risks is the microeconomic foundation of country's financial risks, if we want to establish the country's financial risks early-warning system, first of all, we must build all regions and all levels of financial risks early-warning systems step-by-step.Based on the research results of domestic and foreign financial risk early-warning system, along with the characteristics of the financial system in Gansu province, I design Gansu province financial risks early-warning indicators, which covers macroeconomic, banking, financial ecology, the country's external economic and other fields. Then, I establish Gansu province financial risks early-warning model—GSFRI model by use of KLR signal method, and evaluate the financial risk situation from 1997 to 2006 in Gansu province. Finally, I predict financial risk situation for the next two years in Gansu province by use of AR autoregressive time series model.