The Forecast And Analysis Of Financial General Revenue In Sichuan Province

Financial revenue is the foundation of the national macroeconomic control. With the establishment and the consummation of socialism market economy system, the financial work is facing significant opportunity and challenge: On the one hand the financial function gets stronger, and it have already become one important method of macroeconomic regulation and control; On the other hand the financial work can not meet the need of economic development, so it is urgent to strengthen the forecast. Under the new situation, the forecast of financial revenue gets regarded, and have already become the important question that should be studied.Under present system of dividing taxes financial control, the local financial revenue is not only the important part of the national financial revenue, and it also has relatively independent constitution. So it is necessary and possible to forecast the local finance revenue. Forecasting the local finance revenue scientifically and logically is very important to deal with the relationship of the local financial revenue and the economy.The forecast of local financial revenue is the important precondition and foundation of strengthening the macroeconomic management and raising the level of decision. Affected by the level of economic development, the financial revenue policy and other factors, the forecast of local financial revenue should consider the influence of each factor, to establish the scientific forecast system.This article takes financial general revenue of Sichuan province as the research object, to establish the forecast model. This article includes following five aspects:First, introduce the background of selected topic and research significance;Second, introduce the domestic financial revenue forecast method, development tendency of the forecast model, the correlative research achievement and the results of financial revenue forecast model research in some domestic provinces;Third, introduce the forecast model of local financial general revenue, including GMDH model, time series model and nerve network model;Fourth, this part is important, taking financial general revenue of Sichuan province as the research object, establish GMDH model, time series model and nerve network model to forecast, then contrast and analyze forecast result and choose a better method.Fifth, conclusion and expectation.