Research On The Early-Warning Of XCPG's Economy

The economy early warning is a whole set of method system, including economy monitor> economy evaluation,economy estimate and policy choice, that is based of the economy circulate. Specifically, it is depicting and analyzing the each main aspect of the economic process on the macro view, and forecasting the economy insurance. The aim is that forecasting economy false phenomenon, and that scenically predicting the economy trend of future.This text mainly relies on the basic thought of the early warning method of economic prosperity, combining the theory and methods of co integration relation, to set up a large economy early warning system in actual district economy on the basis of the yearly data, to scenically compare the evaluation to the XPCG's economy system, to scenically estimate foreground of the XPCG's economy, and to hold regulation of the economy movement of XPCG accurately. The result of this paper: from REFORM to now, the stability of XPCG's economy is worse. It has experienced the period circulation motion of" extend(1979-1985)—constringency(1986-1997)â†'extend(1998-2005)" mostly. From 1979 to 1985, XPCG urged the economic fast development by accelerating fixed assets overall investment under the background of the whole country's musingly economy and the macroscopic economic policy, and a series of aggressive policy of oneself. From 1986 to 1997, XPCG's economy was overall slippery. Because the national market need was weak, the missing economic phenomenon was gradually disappearing, the market's structure has changed, economy system was limited gradually, and the industrial structure was worsen increasingly. From 1998 to 2005, because of the fast development of the heavy industry, building industry and livestock husbandry, XPCG's economy had extended fast. It was not a comprehensive economy extend.At future 15 years, the whole economy movement of XPCG may appear two new characteristics: firstly, the trend of the growth will probably keep on in many years (about 7 years). Secondly, the turning of the growth rate will carry out probably further smooth and the range of growth rate will be contracting gradually. Moreover, from the process and result of this paper, we find that it is viable that early warning method of economy prosperity and the co integration relation theory are knotted to apply in the macroscopic economy the early warning, and the result is more ideal. It can provide the certain reference and drawing lessons for the later macro view economic early warning research.