Control Theoretical Approach To Bullwhip Effect And Attenuation Measures

Bullwhip effect is one of key problems in the research of supply chain, which give rise to redundant in stock, exaggerated in product planning and increasing in cost. The list of the negative effects goes on. So, there has been analysis focusing on the bullwhip phenomenon and its solutions. Existing research on bullwhip effect can be generalized to three aspects: a) the existence of bullwhip effect; b) related quantitative analysis; c) the method to attenuate bullwhip effect and its stability research. But most of current works adhere to the fore two researches; the latest is still under studying. Furthermore, the current researches on the bullwhip effect are usually employing statistic models such as AR(Auto Regression) model and presumptions of research are often creating gap from reality. The dissertation tries alternative method to solving it by using the Control Theoretical Approach.First, the paper summarizes the negative effects of bullwhip and causes for its existence. Second, the effect of lead time, average data period and coefficient on the bullwhip is analyzed. Following it, some defects in the above model is pointed out and the control system model is put forward by means of transfer function. Third, considering the act of information enrichment in supply chain, the author tries to identify the bullwhip effect change after adding information enrichment to traditional supply chain. The results support the idea that information enrichment does act an important role in attenuating the bullwhip effect; In order to abate it thoroughly, new replenishment strategy was advocated ----a smoothing replenishment policy and equally compare the changing situation between traditional and information enrichment supply chain. Two parameters are introduced into the research process that is Tn and Tw represent respectively discrepancy between actual and desired inventory, work in progress and desired work in progress inventory. The final results support the conclusion that a blend ofnew replenishment strategy and information enrichment measure can eliminate the bullwhip effect thoroughly.The last but not least, based on the above quantitative analysis, the author recognizes the measure of optimizing the structure of supply chain to reduce the bullwhip effect. The points of this paper lie in its new approach to analyzing and studying the bullwhip effect in Control Theoretical view.