The Evaluation And Forecast Of Liaoning's Construction Industry Based On BP Neural Network

Construction industry is one of the pillar industries in national economy. It also plays an important role in national economy development. After China jointed into the WTO, the market of construction industry would open gradually. At the same time, our construction industry will encounter many various opportunities and challenges. Construction industry is one of the advanced industries of Liaoning Province. Therefore, it is necessary to study how to hold chances, confront challenges, and have large market share in competition to carry out the historic leap of constructing Architecture Big & Prosperous Province. Based on the earlier research study of Liaoning Ministry of Construction, combining the development features of construction industry thoroughly, this article carries out the comprehensive evaluation and forecast the economical & technical indexes of Liaoning's construction industry applying BP Neural Network.Upon an economical & technical comprehensive evaluation index system of construction industry, this paper evaluates the present condition of Liaoning's construction industry and forecasts the economical & technical indexes scientifically. Besides the former research achievement, this paper perfects the economical & technical comprehensive evaluation index system; completes the related data collection of 12 cities and provinces' construction industry from 1994 to 2003; accomplishes the construction industry evaluation within Industrial Economics; carries out the comparison of several comprehensive evaluation methods; using Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fussy Theory comprehensively evaluates the present conditions of Liaoning's construction industry, furthermore trains the network with the evaluating results of 2002 in order to obtain the comprehensive evaluation model based on BP Neural Network. The comprehensive evaluating score of 2003 through applying BP Neural Network can be got after simulation, and in this way, the objectively evaluates of Liaoning's construction industry developing present condition upon comparison analysis of 12 cities and provinces' construction industry and the comprehensive evaluation based on BP Neural Network are established; applies two methods—Gray System and BP Neural Network forecasting the economical & technical indexes of Liaoning's construction industry and draws the conclusion that the forecast result of BP Neural Network is obviously better than Gray System on the basis of the calculating results comparison; and finally, according to the...