Study On The Dynamic Changes Of Bosten Lake And Its Drivers

This article selects different characters since 1972 at different times of the year 9 scene images of remote sensing, lake area of information extraction using image processing software, and then through the establishment of area- water fitting model of the performance year by year from 1958 to 2012 lakes area of data, and analyze its dynamic characteristics. Lake area after using the grey correlation analysis method to influence the natural driving factors and human driving factors in correlation calculation, combining watershed hydrological and meteorological data and social and economic information, affecting the lakes area of dynamic changes of natural factors and human factors to conduct a comprehensive in-depth analysis and research, the results are as follows:(1)During 1958-2012, Boston area change is volatile, the average area of 1041.02 km2, 1987 and 2002 are the two turning point, the change process is divided into three main stages. The area in 2002 at a maximum of 1179.34 km2, 1987, minimum value of 872.55 km2, and in 2002-2006 and in 1999-2002 rise steadily. Around 2002, the global climate into warm wet season, corresponding to the climate in the study area has a certain degree of change, the glacier melt water runoff into the lake and increase than in previous years.(2) The grey correlation analysis results: Boston area of change is by the natural factors(runoff into the lake, air temperature, rainfall, evaporation) and human activities(irrigation area, irrigation diverted, net irrigation water consumption) the result of joint action. The runoff changes into the lake is the main influence factors of lake area of expansion and contraction. From 1958 to 1987, the water volume shrinking, lake area assumes the declining trend of fluctuations. Overall in 1958 from 1127.51 km2 fell to 872.55 in 1987 km2, 30 years average lake covers an area of 1059.77 km2, during the natural factors of lakes area is greater than the influence of human factors; Increased from 1988 to 2002, into the lake, the lake area is significantly increasing trend, namely in 1988 from 894.28 km2 to 1179.34 km2, 2002, the average area of 1020.46 km2. During this period, the influence of human activities on the lake area is gradually increased, but on the whole, the influence of natural factors on the lake area is stronger than the human activity effect; Reduced the volume of 2003-2012, into the lake, lake area to quickly reduce the trend, then the reduced from 1171.82 km2 in 2003 to 934.41 in 2012 km2, the average area of 1015.58 km2, during this period the influence of human activities on the lake area were significantly increased.(3) Characters of area changes by the combined impact of natural factors and human activities in recent years, obviously increase the disturbance of human activities on the lake district, by about 2000 the most dramatic. Overall, influence the most direct cause of the change of the Boston area as the natural factors, but the climate effect of human activities on the influence of the lake and other natural factors have strong amplification effect, namely the human activities have greatly increased the acuteness degree of interaction between natural factors and lakes, lake area changes increase the frequency of the wave.