The Research Of Shanxi In Recent 50 Years On Extreme Weather And Disasters

The earth climate change had a profound influence on social, economic and natural system. Drought, waterlogging and a series of weather climate disasters occur frequently have brought great problems to the water resources, food production and energy in many countries. Existing research shows that, drought, floods, refrigeration and other natural disasters in Shanxi Province caused great losses to people’s life, property and production. Therefore, comprehensive knowledge of climate change, the epidemic regularity of drought and flood, low temperature chilling injury, is significance for the related department to improve the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation as well as to predict the occurrence and development of disaster timely and effectively.Using different methods on the basis of extreme temperatures, this paper illustrated the changes of temperature and precipitation in Shanxi Province. It also include the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation index, and extreme temperature and extreme precipitation index. This paper discusses the extreme climate index of response to climate change, and by using the regional climate model simulation of rainfall and temperature of 100 in Shanxi, gives a forecast of the future.(1) Under the background of global warming, the annual average temperature of Shanxi Province from 1961 to 2012 presented obvious rising trend. The move of winter warming is most significant, spring is the second, the summer warming moves the fewest; Annual precipitation showed a trend of obvious reduction, the summer precipitation has a obvious decreasing trend, the autumn precipitation appeared reducing trend, the spring precipitation showed only weak reducing trend, winter precipitation change trend were different from other three seasons, presenting a weak increase trend.(2) In Shanxi Province each season warm day index after the middle of 1990 s presented a significant upward trend, a significant drop in the cold night. After the middle of 1980 s, the high temperature days showed significant increasing trends. After the middle of 1990 s, frost days significantly reduced. Days after the middleof 1980 s, biological growth season showed an increase significantly. In the 21 st century, moderate rain, heavy rain and heavy rain days ware increasing, especially in the heavy rain days.(3) The warm summer day, warm index, high temperature index can reflect the number of counties of the drought disaster areas in Shanxi very well. Warm summer day, high temperature index in the region of the central regions are significantly increased, therefore these areas must focus on development and incidence of abnormal high temperature in summer. Spring cold night, frost index can effectively reflect the devastated county in Shanxi Province because of the frost. The cold night in local southern areas of the index has increased, and the south is the important agricultural production, so it is important to pay special attention to the spring frost disaster losses for agricultural production. Moderate rain, heavy rain and heavy rain days and the number of counties presented the significant negative correlation, as well as reduced rainfall tends to cause the occurrence of drought in Shanxi. Combining with the relevant analysis of extreme temperature index and drought disaster in Shanxi Province in the central and southern, we should pay especial attention to the rainfall and temperature, increasing water conservancy project construction, improving the methods of agricultural production in order to reduce drought losses.(4) The extreme precipitation index of moderate rain, heavy rain and heavy rain days have a good response. Extreme temperature index of annual temperature all have very good response. Influenced by greenhouse gas emissions scenarios A1 B, Shanxi annual mean temperature and precipitation appeared increasing trend in the 21 st century, the future temperatures rising shows the tendency of reducing of drought disasters and the frost cold disasters, but that storm floods occur will be increased.