Research On Fuzzy Forecasting Technique Of Project Rational Cost And Programmed Design

"Winning bid with the minimum price", being a universal principle to judge the tender documents, used widely no matter in foreign government's purchasing or in calling for bid in engineering construction and has become a international practice. The tender is permitted to select the successful bidder with the minimum price in the law of bid and calling for bid in the People's Republic of China, it is begun to put into effect on January 1, 2000. So there is legal protection to use this method. Especially with the. market open step and step and the popularization of the model of quantity sheet figure after our country entering WTO, bid and calling for bid must be operated accordingto international practice. So "Winning bid with the minimum price" will be main method to judge bid."Winning bid with the minimum price" is put into effect depending on perfect market environment, supporting systems, standard program and scientific judgment ways. At present, architectural market in our country is not normalized, some problems appeared in using "Winning bid with the minimum price", they are the bound of traditional ideas, absence of assorted environment in the management systems of engineering cost, difficult for bidder to bid rational costs more difficult for tenderee to determine that the quotation is lower than the cost price, problems of quality and claim after bid; all of them, it is the most difficult to define rational cost price. The study in this paper is how to determine the rational cost price quickly and scientifically.The shortcomings of traditional forecasting technique are complex in calculating, heavy in works hand labor andslow, it is not adapt to the requirement for fast in bid. So new ways is pushed out to forecast engineering cost using the theory of fuzzy mathematics, at the meantime, program is compiled to compute the cost. The method is not only proofed but also operability in this paper.Based on the rudimentary concept of engineering cost, this paper studied the constitution of engineering cost in order to correctly forecast the cost, put forward obviously that the rational cost is individual cost> administration cost> complete cost, make the topic more prominent.The theory of fuzzy mathematics is introduced; using the concept of membership grade, this paper combined fuzzy mathematics with the technique of exponential smoothing. This will be foundation to establish the mathematical model of fuzzy forecasting technique of engineering cost.The mathematical model is created in this paper . the chart of fuzzy characteristic coefficient for frame structure, that is membership grade in fuzzy technology. This part iscore and main viewpoint of the author. It is deeply studied to use and operate the fuzzy forecasting technique. Finally, the reliability is certificated with engineering example.Using the soft of VisualB, this paper made the method program, constructed a simple operating windows, turned complex theory into easy. Simultaneous, it is possible to use the method widely.Finally, this paper discussed the prospect and problems in fuzzy forecasting technique if engineering cost, pointed out the direction and emphasis in order to make this technique more perfect and mature, enter market and utility, and facilitate the bid and judging bid.