| Electricity is very important to the national economy, with the thoroughly reforming of electric power system, the marketing of the electrical enterprises becomes faster and faster. Electrical business is running into a high speed development stage and electric power is changing from"seller's market"to"buyer's market"gradually. In this situation, the traditional management and management system can't meet the current needs, so adopting an efficient power sales decision support system is more and more important. Predicting is the foundation and premise of correct decisions. Therefore, power predicting is an important part of power sales decision support system and it plays an important role in power sales decision making.First, the background and meaning of the research work is analyzed. The development and present situation of the research both at home and abroad is summarized. Then some existent problems from them are found. Based on these, the research target of this paper is determined.Secondly, the development and basic mode of DSS is analyzed and the principles and functions of three important parts of DSS are expounded. The power sales DSS and some applying techniques is summarized. Then, the advices for improving man-computer interactive system are given and the twice extracting mode for electricity data is designed.Thirdly, according to the analysis towards the feasibility, rules and common methods for power quantity predicting, two predicting ways: vertical predicting and vertical combining with horizontal predicting are put forward. The predicting models are imported and the seeking of model parameters, models characteristic etc is analysis or deduced. The experiment towards power quantity in seven sections of Tianjin is done and the parameters and initial values are determined through it. Then, the error degree resulted in the predicting experiment are contrasted and analyzed.At last, the research work is summarized. |
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