| It has been five years since China formally joined the World Trade Organization. According to the statistical figures offered from the State Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce, China's automobile market expanded rapidly in the past five years. China's annual auto output was raised to a new level every year, and respectively breakthrough 3 million, 4 million and 5 million, and average output is growth of 35% from 2002 to 2004. In 2005, 5.92 million vehicles were sold and the total scale was beyond Germany and Japan, leapt ahead of second in the world. China's auto industry has entered a period of steady development. At this critical period, auto and auto-related industries manufacturers need some methods or tools very accurately to predict the future vehicle longer-term trend, in order to guide the production and development of a long-term development strategy. Study shows that the process of growth of China's auto market was deeply influenced by the demand environment changes which policy is the chief representative.From what has been described above, that a dynamic simulation platform is very necessary in the process of the development in the automobile industry. We can clearly understand current and future trends in the development of the auto industry when the environment or national policies affecting the development changes. Designing such a platform has great significance for industrial policy framers and supervisors.Based on these characteristics, if we want to understand how the policy affects the auto industry, we must establish a platform which can express general rules of the automobile industry, embody the policy of non-linear characteristics, and realize the complex relationship between different policies, to test the dynamic response of the automobile industry in random combinations of policies. According to conference of the project team and the recommendations of rich experienced teachers and industry experts, we believe that establishing a system dynamics simulation model is a better way. The reason why we choose System Dynamics Modeling mainly because it is explicable and it shows outstanding ability when dealing with complex nonlinear multivariable problems and it has good computer software platform to supporting it.We implemented a input-output control system which can comprise the model and make it easy to use.VBA (Visual Basic for Application) language based on Excel is used to develop such a software platformWe used Extreme Programming (XP) method as the software development process.The first part of this paper is introduction, which introduce where the project came from, the background of this project and the significance of the study, the status of the research, and the crucial issue and major techniques of it. Finally the author manifests his works and structure of the paper. The second part is the presentation of system dynamics and PowerSim Studio.Part III is demand analysis which describes the requirement analysis in the process of software development form software design and model design.Part IV presents the design and implementation of this system in process of general design, interface design, function design, data structure design, process design, and the scrap module design.Part V analyses the software and introduces the basic need of the software and hardware.The sixth part shows the methods of software development process and project management and expounds the Extreme Programming methodology and project management skills in the whole development process. Part VII is summary and outlook. This paper shows some conclusions and some recommendations for improvement.This project is the part of the project named"the countermeasures research for China's automotive industry long-term development trend", which came from the State Development and Reform Commission Department of Industrial Policy. The collaborative research project, which came from China First Automobile Group and the Management College of Jilin University, is designed by a project team charged by Yupeng Fei, associate professor of Jilin University. This system has already passed the sector evaluation and group evaluation of FAW.This system was praised by the automobile experts on the assessing meetings. For the industrial policy makers and the auto-related manufacturers, the simulation platform is very useful to predict the auto industry's future market trends, to understand the automobile-related situation of the domestic and international environment. This is a very effective auxiliary tool more than we can offer. |
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