University Loan Risk Evaluation And Forecasting Model Construction

In recent years,high school education is developing in a rapid speed,especially after 1999.Enlargement makes the students who otherwise can't enter the university fullfill their dreams.But it causes most high schools to build their new campuses.This relaxed the press of education resource,but increase the finance risk of school.But in the course of funds raising,most scholls solve the financial problem by long-term ,large amounts loan from banks.Moderate loans not only guarantee the accomplishment of the enlargement and the healthy development of education but also produce a new channel for bank's credit.But in reality ,many high schools for their loaning behavior lacks of rational analysis and the banks also try their best to release the loan.But the blind ,excessive scale of loan makes the high school sink into the serious debt crisis,causing the disadvantege situation for high school development.At the same time it also increases the banks financial risk.This thesis makes use of NPV to analyze the loaning limitation of the high school and give some suggestions for risk control from three aspects:high school,bank and government.This will be significant for the reasonable using of the finance for new campuses,the project progressing and the development of high school education.First,this thesis summarizes the funds raising pattern of the new campuses as supporting by government, operating capital ,depending on loan and the mixture mode and compare the risks on basis of new campus construction background and funds raising difficulty analysing ,and makes the conclusion that most high schools belong to dependence on loan and excessive denpendence will make the high school face great financial risk.Second,this thesis obtains the risk of the university loan basic on the abalysis the present situation and tbe characteristic of the loan; Then analyzes the hidden danger of the university loan from five concrete aspects, Finally Summary the loan risk type of the university from macroscopic and the microscopic : Repays principal and interest risk,the risk of breaks a promise, the overall unbalanced risk,and analyzes reason which it produces.Third,the thesis analyzes the university's financial report form, summarizes the university the originate of the restitute funds, carries on the forecast to the university future revenue embarks from the actual recruitment of students rate, which obtains the cash current capacity of the university future. Using the NPV obtain the university the loan. Finally obtains the university the loan specified amount control model through several different situation forecasts which will possibly appear to the future.Finally,this thesis discusses the problem of risk control of the high school loaning from three aspect:high school,bank and government on the basis of the before chapters.