Research On Sustainability Of Expansive Fiscal Policies

This paper is about the sustainability of expansive fiscal policies in China. Due to the change of economic conditions in 2004, the problem of sustainability of expansive fiscal policies is not the hot spot to most of researchers. But if we notice the fact that the expansive fiscal policies is just the reflection of the investment-hauling economic increasing in China, we will keep interest on this problem, since only if the way of economic increasing has changed the expansive fiscal policies can really fade out. This paper sums up two quantitative and one qualitative analysis ways those are used in the past researching then points out the common faults of them and brings forward three new thinking paths of this topic. The first is analyzing the content and level of policy risk by a model that is constructed by analytic hierarchy process. The second is searching for the up limit of the ratio of annual issued debt to GDP or total debt to GDP. The last is judging up whether the ratio of capital investment to GDP is too high to sustainable.