A Study On The Mathematical Model In Differentiation Of Benign And Malignant Ascites

Research Background:The study on differentiation between benign and malignant ascites is an important clinical subject.The pathological cell detection in ascites is the gold standard,whenas,the sensitivity is low. Sensitivity or specificity is also low in detecting of single tumor marker or another index.Simple combined detection also has one-sidedness,so to establish a mathematic model can make it an organic integral body,which we look forward to using to do some help to differentiate benign and malignant ascites.Objective:To establish a mathematic model to explore the differentiation of benign and malignant ascites.Methods:After analyzing the historical data of 97 cases of our hospital,we devided all the cases into two groups:group of malignant ascites included 46 cases and group of benign ascites included 51 cases.Then SAAG,CA199,AFP,CEA,FERRITIN,CA125 of serum and CEA of ascites were used as dependents,and the quality of ascites as independent.After single and plenty factor logistic regression analysing, useful items were selected,and different comparisons were performed,at the end the regression equation was deduced and the ROC curve was used to evaluate its diagnostic efficiency. Results:1.SAAG,CA199,AFP,CEA of serum and CEA of ascites showed statistical meaning after single factor analysis.2.SAAG,CA199,AFP of serum and CEA of ascites showed statistical meaning after plenty factors analysis,the regression equation P=1/(1+e^{-(-1.417-0.745X1+0.060X2+0.786X3+1.932X7)}]was deduced,when it is greater than or equal to 0.69,we can tell the ascites is malignant, otherwise,we can tell it is benign.3.The sensitivity,specificity and veracity of the combination of the useful items and detecting of malignant cells in ascites were 91.3%,100 %,95.9%and 41.3%,100%,72.2%respectively in diagnosis of malignant ascites.Conclusion:The regression equation finally deduced is as follows: P=1/(1+e^{-(-1.417-0.745X1+0.060X2+0.786X3+1.932X7)}].when it is greater than or equal to 0.69,we can tell the ascites is malignant,otherwise,we can tell it is benign.The sensitivity,specificity and veracity of the combination of the useful items were 91.3%,100%,95.9%respectively..