| Health human resource is the most important and crucial component in health resource.With the rapid development of society and economy in our country,people's living standards have been improved and their demand for health care service has grown accordingly.Meanwhile,the higher demand is also presented to the health human resource.Although health service in our country has got great development, phenomena of imbalance in health human resource still exists in many cities,and the city of Lianyungang as the example of it.In order to make health human resource suit to the developing level and dimensions of public health service,and promote health service to develop coordinately,researches on the allocation and forecast of health human resource should be strengthened urgently.By using methods of literature research,descriptive study and quantitative research,this paper analyses current status of health human resource allocation of Lianyungang city as well as the dynamic changes of health technological personnel, and establishes a forecasting model of health human resource,with which forecasts the number of health technological personnel,doctors,health technological personnel per 1000 persons and doctors per 1000 persons of Lianyungang city respectively.The main results are as follows:the indicator of Lianyungang's health personnel per 1000 persons in 2006 is low;maldistribution of health human resource among health institutes is obvious;the ratio between doctors and nurses is unbalanced;the distribution of health human resource among regions is uneven;and the educated degree of rural doctors is low on the whole.In the 5 administrative divisions of Lianyungang city,the distributed equity of health human resource in term of population and geography is not very strong,which can be strengthened greatly.In 2006,compared to the national and Jiangsu province's average level of health technological personnel per 1000 persons,doctors per 1000 persons and nurses per 1000 persons,each indicator of Lianyungang city is lower.Compared to other cities in Jiangsu province,we find the above indicators of Lianyungang city are in the downstream level of the whole province.According to the forecast results,health technological personnel per 1000 persons and doctors per 1000 persons of Lianyungang city were about 2.68 and 1.22 respectively in 2020,which are still smaller than the present levels of Jiangsu province.As a result,it is necessary to develop health human resource vigorously.On the basis of the problems existing in health human resource allocation of Lianyungang city and combining to the forecast results,corresponding suggestions are put forward as follows:public health investment should be enlarged,to develop health human resource vigorously;the structure of health human resource should be adjusted, to make health human resource develop coordinately in each field;macro control should be strengthened,to make the regional distribution of health human resource better-balanced;and rural doctors need to be strengthen managed,to improve the quality of the team further. |